#预测市场 Polymarket's recent insider trading incident is worth a close look. A new account bet $32,500 on Maduro's ousting, with a return of over 1,200%, making $400,000 profit in less than 24 hours — these numbers alone are suspicious.

The key lies in on-chain signals: the fund flow indicates that the wallet funding this account is highly associated with WLFI co-founder Witkoff. The SOL deposits into the STVLU.SOL wallet match with a 99% time correlation, and later, $170,000 worth of Fartcoin was transferred in, which cannot be explained as a coincidence.

Even more noteworthy is the timeline — market prices related to Maduro's arrest began to rise hours before Trump's announcement. Government officials with access to non-public information are trading on predictive markets, which violates the fundamental principle of information symmetry in markets.

U.S. Representative Torres proposed the "Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act," which aims to prohibit federal officials from engaging in such trades when they possess non-public information. From a regulatory perspective, this is necessary, but a more practical issue is — on-chain tracing is becoming increasingly difficult to evade, and the flow of funds will ultimately speak. Prediction markets need a truly fair competitive environment, otherwise they will only become tools for information arbitrage.