"Bitcoin price trend" stalls: From $89.87K, a major change in market structure

Bitcoin has stabilized after experiencing intense volatility in October and November 2025, currently oscillating around $89.87K, down nearly 30% from the all-time high of $126.08K set in October 2025. This correction is not only significant in scale but also marks a structural shift in the crypto market. Industry insiders generally believe that the future trajectory of Bitcoin’s price will depend on the pace of institutional capital inflows and changes in policy environment.

Gerry O’Shea, Head of Global Market Insights at Hashdex, pointed out that while opportunities may arise in the coming weeks from U.S. monetary policy or congressional cryptocurrency legislation, Bitcoin remains in a range-bound pattern, making it difficult to judge simply. Jim Ferraioli, Chief of Crypto Strategy at Charles Schwab, added that there are still opportunities overall in 2026, but from a market perspective, that year might be relatively “boring”—as the market digests the eightfold increase from the November 2022 lows to October 2025.

Dropped 40% from the high, why are institutional giants still on the sidelines?

Over the past three years, Bitcoin’s performance has been remarkable, but such an astonishing rally inevitably leads to a correction. Ferraioli analyzed that when an asset reaches this scale, it requires ample time to “digest,” which is precisely the stage the market is currently in.

It is worth noting that the driving forces behind Bitcoin’s price movements have quietly changed. The era of on-chain traders driving the market is over; now, the market is entirely dominated by ETF capital flows. Low trading fees, profit-taking by long-term holders, and Bitcoin balances on exchanges dropping to historic lows all point to the same conclusion: the true institutional players have not yet fully entered the market. Ferraioli emphasized that only when relevant cryptocurrency legislation is enacted could Bitcoin’s price potentially continue to rise.

Although this structural shift makes investing in Bitcoin more accessible, it may also distort short-term market signals. ETF capital inflows and outflows have become highly sensitive, leading to more frequent price fluctuations, but lacking strong upward momentum.

ETF leads the pack, why is on-chain activity silent?

After the capital tide receded at the beginning of the year, digital assets have appeared dull compared to other asset classes. Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, observed that without a new wave of institutional capital or a shift in the overall economy (such as rate cuts), Bitcoin is likely to maintain its current range-bound state.

This phenomenon reflects deeper changes in market structure. Traditional on-chain indicators—trading volume, active addresses, capital flows—are no longer the main factors determining Bitcoin’s price movements. Instead, traditional financial instruments like ETFs, with larger capital pools and more regulated operations, have become the dominant forces influencing the market.

Will Reeves, CEO of Fold, interprets the current situation from a supply-demand perspective. He believes Bitcoin is currently undervalued, and the market is waiting for selling pressure to exhaust and for a new wave of buying to take over. This view suggests that the bottom of Bitcoin’s price trend may not be far off.

Is this the “crypto winter” or just a normal correction?

There are still differing opinions on whether the market is entering a new “crypto winter.” Ferraioli stated that, by traditional definitions, Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market, but considering its high volatility, a 30% correction is not uncommon. This perspective leaves room for a potential rebound in Bitcoin’s price.

What truly determines the future may not be short-term technical or capital factors but rather the breakthrough in adoption rates. Bitcoin has unique drivers—limited money supply, a deflationary supply growth mechanism, and most importantly, adoption. The market generally believes that if adoption can achieve a qualitative leap, it will inject new growth momentum into Bitcoin’s price.

Against this backdrop, 2026 is more like a “waiting” year for Bitcoin. Waiting for policy implementation, waiting for institutional giants to truly enter, waiting for adoption rates to break through. Whether Bitcoin’s price can break through the current stalemate depends ultimately on whether these variables can be realized within the year.