Integer level repeatedly breached, BTC faces $28.5 billion derivatives settlement challenge

Cryptocurrency markets have recently experienced increased volatility. After surging to $90,000, Bitcoin couldn’t sustain the rally and quickly gave back gains, currently trading around $90,000. The repeated battles over this whole number threshold reflect the market’s high tension ahead of the upcoming super settlement day. According to the latest data, BTC is now at $90.03K, up 1.22% in the past 24 hours, but short-term fluctuations around the whole number remain a key focus for traders.

Year-End Final Test: Deribit’s Super Settlement Day Approaching

This Friday (26th) marks the annual culmination in the crypto derivatives market. The world’s largest crypto derivatives exchange, Deribit, will see Bitcoin and Ethereum options with a total value of $28.5 billion expire simultaneously, an unprecedented scale.

Deribit Chief Business Officer Jean-David Pequignot pointed out that this settlement amount accounts for more than half of the platform’s $52.2 billion in open interest, highlighting its significant market influence. He stated that the year-end settlement not only signifies the end of 2025 but also underscores the profound changes in market fundamentals. Compared to previous years dominated by speculative sentiment, the current market has evolved into a “super cycle” driven by policy and institutional capital, making the annual settlement a crucial moment to test this shift.

The Largest Pain Point Price at $96,000, Whole Number Thresholds Become Key Battlegrounds

Market traders generally focus on a technical concept—“maximum pain point price,” which is the strike price most likely to cause maximum loss to options holders before expiration. Although this theory remains debated academically, it often serves as an important reference for practical trading.

According to Deribit’s latest analysis, Bitcoin’s current maximum pain point is at $96,000. Notably, the market is repeatedly testing the whole number thresholds between $85,000 and $90,000, as these price levels tend to gather large stop-loss orders and arbitrage positions, making them critical for short-term direction.

Downside Risks Emerge, Put Positions as Accelerators

While overall market sentiment remains optimistic, downside risks should not be underestimated. Pequignot warned that at the $85,000 strike price, there is a massive open interest of $1.2 billion in put options (bearish options). If selling pressure intensifies, these positions could trigger a “cliff” effect, accelerating the decline in prices.

In other words, whole number levels (such as $85,000, $80,000) are not just technical support levels but also concentrated zones for large put option obligations. Once broken, a chain reaction could quickly escalate.

Bulls Still Holding, Medium-Term Bullish Sentiment Remains

Despite rising short-term volatility risks, bulls have not fully relinquished their defenses. Traders are still employing medium-term call spread strategies targeting $100,000 to $125,000, indicating a constructive outlook for the first half of 2026.

However, the cost of short-term hedges (protective puts) has risen significantly, reflecting increased caution among traders regarding recent volatility. While bulls and bears have not directly clashed, both sides are engaging in a silent psychological battle through options pricing.

Rolling Positions to January: New Risk Management Approaches for Traders

Notably, traders are not rushing to close existing defensive positions but are adopting more flexible “rollover” strategies. Specifically, market funds are shifting from December-expiring puts with strike prices between $85,000 and $70,000 to January-expiring put spread positions with strike prices between $80,000 and $75,000.

This indicates two things: on one hand, investors have made basic hedges against short-term risks before year-end; on the other hand, they remain highly cautious about the market trajectory in early 2026, hesitant to take reckless actions. In other words, the battle over whole number levels will not end with this week’s settlement but will continue into the new round of testing in January.

The Road Ahead: Ongoing Struggles over Whole Number Levels

From Bitcoin’s current price of $90.03K, the market is very close to the $90,000 whole number threshold. With Deribit’s $28.5 billion options expiry looming, each subsequent whole number level could become a turning point.

Regardless of how the settlement unfolds, a clear signal has emerged: traders are no longer fixated on short-term gains but are preparing multi-dimensional risk strategies for the entire 2026 market cycle. The year-end exam will eventually conclude, but investors’ focus on whole number levels and their understanding of derivatives market structure will form a crucial basis for decision-making in the new year.