Interpretation of Investment Factors in 2026: VanEck Global Market Outlook

As we enter 2026, the global investment market faces a rare environment—key drivers have significantly diminished. According to the latest analysis by VanEck, as fiscal and monetary policy signals become clearer, market uncertainty has greatly decreased, opening a new window of opportunity for risk asset allocation. Under this environment of changing drivers, fields such as artificial intelligence, private credit, gold, India, and cryptocurrencies all present more attractive investment opportunities.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Certainty Drivers

The gradual improvement of the US fiscal situation has become one of the most important shifts in drivers. Although the deficit remains high, its proportion of GDP has noticeably decreased and is no longer at the historic peak levels seen during the pandemic. This fiscal stabilization trend helps anchor long-term interest rates and significantly reduces tail risk in the markets.

On the policy front, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the current interest rate level as “normal,” a statement with deep implications. It indicates that the market should not expect aggressive short-term rate cuts in 2026. Instead, the policy framework points toward a stable tone, moderate adjustments, and fewer policy shocks. This increased predictability reduces the disturbance of policy drivers on investment portfolios and provides a solid foundation for more active risk appetite.

Valuation Reset in AI and Nuclear Energy Sectors

By the end of 2025, AI-related stocks experienced a sharp price correction. Compared to the “stifling” valuation peaks in October, the current AI investment theme shows a clear improvement in attractiveness. Notably, while valuations have reset, the underlying demand for computing power, digital tokens, and productivity enhancements remains strong.

Similarly, the nuclear energy sector, which is highly correlated with AI-driven electricity demand, also saw significant price adjustments in Q4. These shifts create allocation opportunities that are especially valuable for participants with a medium- to long-term investment horizon. Although technicals for nuclear stocks have pulled back, the industry’s fundamentals remain supported, offering better entry points for long-term investors.

Turning Point in Business Development Companies’ Credit Drivers

Business Development Companies (BDCs) faced market tests in 2025, but these experiences have created a turning point for allocations. As concerns over credit risk have largely been digested and yields remain attractive, BDCs now present a more cost-effective investment position than a year ago.

The management companies behind BDCs (such as Ares and other well-known private credit firms) have also benefited from this shift. Their current valuations are more reasonable relative to long-term profitability and historical performance, with greater upside potential.

The Changing Role of Gold as a Global Currency Asset

Strong demand from central banks and a global economic landscape increasingly free from dollar dominance are driving gold’s resurgence as a leading global currency asset. This is a long-term structural driver rather than a short-term price fluctuation.

Although technical analysis suggests gold prices are above support levels, VanEck believes recent price retracements present a good opportunity to increase holdings. Gold’s structural advantages have not weakened due to short-term corrections; central banks’ continued gold purchases, de-dollarization trends, and other fundamental drivers are still fermenting over the long term. In fact, gold demand remains robust, with only market sentiment experiencing short-term fluctuations.

Cryptocurrency Cycles and India’s Growth as New Drivers

Beyond the US market, India remains a high-growth potential investment market, supported by structural reforms and ongoing economic momentum.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle experienced a clear breakdown in 2025. This cycle deviation makes short-term signals more complex and diversified. As a result, VanEck adopts a more cautious short-term outlook for the next 3 to 6 months.

It’s worth noting that internal opinions within VanEck are not entirely uniform regarding this cycle shift. The firm’s crypto strategist Matthew Sigel and executive David Schassler hold relatively positive views on recent cycles, believing that the drivers contain more opportunities than risks. This diversity of internal perspectives reflects the current complexity of drivers in the crypto market.

Looking into 2026, investors will need to navigate these multi-dimensional drivers—clarity in policy drivers, valuation resets, cycle disruptions, and evolving structural factors. Accurate identification and flexible response to these drivers will be key to successful investment decisions.