"Future trend of the US dollar" key turning point? VanEck predicts Bitcoin will make a comeback to 2.9 million USD by 2050

Global asset management giant VanEck recently released a long-term research report, presenting a thought-provoking argument: if Bitcoin can establish itself as the “cornerstone of the global financial system” within the next 25 years, its value potential is limitless. According to the report’s forecast, by 2050, Bitcoin’s price could break through the $2.9 million mark. However, this seemingly astronomical target actually conceals profound considerations about the future trajectory of the US dollar and serves as a metaphor for the reshaping of the global financial landscape.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is approximately $90.16K, which is still 31 times lower than the predicted $2.9 million target. The report by VanEck’s head of research Matthew Sigel and senior analyst Patrick Bush is not merely a simple price call but is based on rigorous valuation calculations grounded in “long-term adoption assumptions.” The core question is: if Bitcoin gradually evolves into a key component of the global financial system rather than just a trading asset, what is its true value?

Dual Assumptions of Trade Settlement and Reserve Assets

VanEck’s valuation model abandons traditional stock analysis tools such as P/E ratios and discounted cash flow models, instead employing “application scenario simulations” to project Bitcoin’s long-term value. The entire hypothetical framework rests on two main pillars.

First, Bitcoin will gradually become a “global trade settlement asset,” potentially handling 5% to 10% of total global trade settlements in the future. Second, in response to the risks posed by US dollar dominance, some central banks may, to diversify foreign exchange risks and reduce reliance on a single sovereign currency, gradually allocate a very small proportion of their reserves to Bitcoin. These two assumptions are mutually reinforcing, reflecting a search for a new balance in the global financial system amid increasing uncertainty about the future of the dollar.

The report also candidly states that, from the current standpoint, there is a significant gap between these assumptions and reality. Bitcoin’s role in global trade settlement is almost negligible, and so far, no central bank has officially included Bitcoin in its official reserves. To achieve this leap, three key conditions must be simultaneously met: clearer regulatory frameworks, mature underlying infrastructure, and broad political acceptance. Currently, these conditions are not yet fully in place.

The Globalization of Bitcoin Driven by Weakening US Dollar Trends

Understanding VanEck’s long-term optimistic forecast hinges on interpreting its macroeconomic outlook. The report, through historical data comparison, uncovers an intriguing trend: Bitcoin’s price correlates more strongly with changes in global liquidity than with traditional assets like stocks and commodities. What does this imply? In short, the driving factors behind Bitcoin’s price are undergoing a profound transformation.

Specifically, the correlation between Bitcoin and the broad money supply (M2) is gradually emerging and strengthening, while its correlation with the US dollar’s trend is weakening. This data signals an important message: the greater the uncertainty about the dollar’s future trajectory, the more urgent the demand from central banks and institutional investors for alternative stores of value. The driving logic behind Bitcoin’s price is shifting from “trading psychology” to “macro monetary policy,” marking an important step in its evolution from an asset to a financial infrastructure.

VanEck forecasts that, based on this driving logic, Bitcoin’s annualized return will remain steady at around 15% over the next 25 years. However, it is important to emphasize that high returns will inevitably come with high volatility. The report predicts that long-term annualized volatility could reach 40% to 70%, resembling the risk profile of emerging markets rather than mature financial assets. Investors should not be dazzled by the $2.9 million vision; this path will not be smooth.

Even under the most conservative “bear market scenario,” VanEck still predicts Bitcoin can maintain positive growth. The core reason supporting this judgment is that Bitcoin’s “structural importance” in the global financial system is continuously increasing, representing a long-term force beyond short-term market fluctuations.

Repositioning Bitcoin’s Role in Portfolio Allocation

From an asset allocation perspective, analysis shows that, after risk adjustment, allocating 1% to 3% of Bitcoin in a diversified portfolio can significantly enhance overall performance. This does not mean Bitcoin itself is low risk; on the contrary, its high volatility is well known. However, due to the limited allocation proportion, Bitcoin’s volatility does not proportionally amplify the overall risk of the investment portfolio—in fact, its low correlation with traditional assets helps diversify risk and boost returns.

In other words, against the backdrop of uncertain US dollar prospects and declining returns from traditional financial assets, a moderate allocation to Bitcoin has become a mainstream choice for international investment institutions. The underlying logic of this allocation reflects a deep participation in the reshaping of the global financial landscape.

VanEck’s report reminds us that Bitcoin’s transition from a speculative asset to a strategic asset is not merely wishful thinking but is based on a profound observation of global economic laws. Achieving the $2.9 million target by 2050 will require long-term adjustments in US monetary policy, gradual optimization of the global regulatory environment, and continuous upgrades of financial infrastructure. The realization of these conditions will determine whether Bitcoin can truly become the new cornerstone of the global financial system.