Japanese Yen's decline boosts risk sentiment: Options market warns Bitcoin may break below support in June

Global monetary policy remains unstable, and the continuous depreciation of the Japanese Yen has become a recent market focus, while this risk sentiment is intensifying the volatility in the cryptocurrency market. As U.S. President Trump once again wields tariffs as a weapon, Bitcoin prices are facing multiple pressures. The latest options market data also raises alarms: traders are heavily betting that Bitcoin will further decline, with a 30% probability of falling below the $80,000 level before the end of June 2026.

Currently, Bitcoin spot prices hover around $89,900, not far from the technical support level of $80,000. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at decentralized derivatives trading protocol Derive.xyz, pointed out that the pricing structure in the options market fully reflects investors’ defensive mindset, indicating a clear short-term downward pressure.

Options Pricing Structure: Revealing the True Market Sentiment

Data models in the options market show a 30% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 before June 26; meanwhile, the probability of breaking above $120,000 within the same period is only 19%. This asymmetric pricing structure reflects market participants’ more pessimistic outlook for the future compared to their optimism.

For investors unfamiliar with derivatives, options are like “insurance” and “hedging agreements” in financial markets. Call options allow investors to bet on price increases, profiting if the price exceeds the strike price; conversely, put options are bets on price declines, profiting if the price falls below the strike price, often used as hedging tools. Currently, a large amount of capital is buying put options, reflecting heightened trader concern about Bitcoin’s prospects.

Heavy Trader Bets on Puts: 30% Chance of Falling Below $80,000

The options market shows a clear “downside skew,” a key indicator measuring the price difference between calls and puts. Sean Dawson warned: “The downside skew remains negative in the short term, indicating significant downward risk.”

On major derivatives platforms Derive and Deribit, investors are heavily purchasing puts with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000, indicating a market expectation that Bitcoin could drop to the mid-$70,000 range. This aggressive betting behavior stems from traders’ concerns over the global macro environment—depreciation of the Yen reflects pressure on global risk assets, with cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, being the first to react.

Trump Tariff Threats Escalate: Market Risks Not Fully Priced In

The immediate trigger for this panic was the dispute over the “Greenland purchase” that erupted over the weekend. Trump, after his proposal to acquire Greenland was rejected, angrily threatened to impose a 10% tariff on 10 European countries. This move immediately triggered a market chain reaction, with Bitcoin quickly dropping from around $95,000 to $91,000, a significant decline.

More notably, this is not the first time Trump has wielded tariffs as a weapon. In April 2025, similar broad tariff threats caused a major shock in global markets, with Bitcoin briefly dropping to $75,000. Signs of history repeating are already emerging. Sean Dawson analyzed: “The tension between the U.S. and Europe over the Greenland issue is significantly increasing market risk premiums. The current spot price has not fully reflected this potential risk, and investors should remain vigilant.”

Derivatives Platform Data Reveals: Downside Risks Far Exceed Upside Expectations

From a technical perspective, the expected structure in the options market clearly depicts an asymmetric risk landscape. A 30% chance of decline versus a 19% chance of rise, this probability gap itself is an intuitive reflection of market panic sentiment.

The current market atmosphere is tense, with volatility clearly expanding. Investors are not only facing policy uncertainties from Trump but also dealing with a tightening global liquidity environment. While Yen depreciation temporarily stimulates risk assets, it also reflects divergence in central bank policies worldwide, adding extra pressure to the high-risk cryptocurrency market. The “downside skew” in the options market has fully issued risk signals, and investors need to prepare for possible downside volatility.