On-chain Data Alert: Bitcoin Bear Market Deep Test, $70,000 Becomes a Critical Defense Line

Data analytics platform CryptoQuant’s latest research indicates that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market cycle starting in early November 2025, currently facing a series of downside risks. The expected bottom range in the future is between $56,000 and $60,000. Research Director Julio Moreno pointed out that although this adjustment is relatively moderate in scale, it reflects a profound shift in market demand structure, especially the significant change in institutional capital flows.

On-Chain Signals Shift, Signs of Demand Peak

CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index”(Bull Score Index) combines technical analysis and on-chain data, which turned fully negative in November last year and has not recovered. Moreno noted that key factors triggering this turn include Bitcoin breaking below the yearly moving average, declining network activity, a sharp contraction in trading volume, and a major liquidation event in October that exhausted buying momentum.

Most notably, there is a clear change on the demand side. In 2025, three major demand waves supported the market: the launch of US spot ETFs, the presidential election, and the rise of Bitcoin savings companies. However, since early October, these demand drivers have gradually waned, especially as US Bitcoin ETFs turned into net sellers in Q4, selling over 24,000 BTC, contrasting sharply with the active accumulation attitude of the previous year.

Retracement of 55% from All-Time Highs — Why Is It the Most Moderate Correction?

Bitcoin reached a peak of $126,080 in October 2025, after rising from $93,000 at the start of the year, then retreated again. If the price falls to the predicted bottom range of $56,000 to $60,000, it would represent a retracement of about 55% from the all-time high. This is a relatively moderate correction in Bitcoin’s history, far below the 70% to 80% declines seen in past cycles like 2022.

This moderate adjustment reflects a fundamental difference: the current decline is mainly driven by demand exhaustion rather than traditional supply-side factors like halving. Moreno emphasized that weakening spot demand is key; previously active institutional positions are now unwinding, and profit indicators have stagnated. While structurally similar to the pre-2022 crash, the extent of correction is more limited due to the fading demand support.

Can the $70,000 Support Hold? It Will Determine the Next Trend

Based on forecast analysis, $70,000 is the first critical support zone. This level roughly aligns with Bitcoin’s “realized price” (the average cost basis of existing holders), which historically often marks a turning point from a bear market.

Moreno revealed the market’s timeline concern: “A correction to $70,000 could occur within the next 3 to 6 months. If market momentum cannot recover, a deeper bottom around $56,000 may be reached in the second half of 2026.” Currently, Bitcoin hovers around $90,360, leaving some room before reaching the first line of defense, but ongoing net capital outflows could accelerate this process.

Liquidity Injection Is the Only Hope for Reversal

CryptoQuant emphasizes that unless there is a new macro liquidity injection (such as a Fed rate cut), the bearish trend will continue to strengthen. “The Bear Market Score Index” has returned to zero for the first time since 2022, a clear signal. Bitcoin’s annual loss in 2025 has become the first since 2022, posing a substantial challenge to the rebound prospects in 2026.

Looking ahead, a rebound may depend on the resumption of institutional buying or an increase in global liquidity. Long-term holders should prepare psychologically for volatility. The $70,000 level is a temporary downside target, followed by the forecasted deeper bottom. Investors should closely monitor this support line, as it will determine whether the market enters a deeper correction cycle.