2026-01-21 16:41:08

Recently, the price gap between Bitcoin spot and futures has noticeably narrowed, directly cooling the enthusiasm of institutions for basis arbitrage. The approach of using spot Bitcoin ETFs for arbitrage has now become much quieter.

From the data, the changes are quite interesting—The open interest of Bitcoin futures on CME Group has fallen from its historical high to below $10 billion. More notably, this is the first time since 2023 that it has dropped below this level. What does this indicate? It suggests that the landscape of the derivatives market is quietly changing, and many institutional investors are adjusting their strategies.

With the arbitrage space shrinking, the enthusiasm for participation naturally declines. This actually reflects a subtle shift in the supply and demand relationship of futures and spot markets across the entire crypto market.

BTC0,8%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

7 Likes

Reward
7
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MerkleDreamer

· 5h ago

Arbitrage opportunities are gone, and institutions should take a break as well. The landscape is indeed changing.

View OriginalReply0

GasGrillMaster

· 5h ago

Arbitrage opportunities are gone, are institutions about to run away? --- Below $10 billion, it seems big players are starting to panic too --- Oh wait, the narrowing gap between spot and futures prices is a good thing, the market is becoming more rational --- Another profitable avenue has been blocked, where is the next hotspot --- CME data has reversed so quickly, it feels like the market is reshuffling --- Are institutions calming down? Then retail investors should be even more cautious, don’t get caught off guard --- The basis arbitrage really has no room left, everyone is losing momentum --- Basically, it’s still about supply and demand changing, how long will this adjustment last --- Open interest has fallen below $10 billion, data doesn’t lie --- Arbitrage enthusiasm has cooled down, but the market actually feels more stable

View OriginalReply0

GoldDiggerDuck

· 5h ago

Arbitrage opportunities are gone, and institutions will lose interest. To put it simply, it's still profit-driven. Below 10 billion? What does this data indicate... Retail investors should wake up. The futures and spot price gap is narrowing. I think everyone is just testing the waters. Let's wait and see.

View OriginalReply0

GhostWalletSleuth

· 5h ago

Arbitrage opportunities are gone, and institutions should take a break. This wave clearly shows the market is cooling down. Huh? CME has fallen below 10 billion? Where are the institutional layouts? Are they about to withdraw? When the spread narrows, no one plays anymore. What does that mean... it just means there's no cheap profit to be made. The spot-futures price difference has evened out, and that's when the real game begins. Don't be fooled by surface data.

View OriginalReply0

MetaverseLandlord

· 5h ago

Arbitrage opportunities are gone, even the big players have to withdraw. The basis is no longer interesting, that's true. CME falling below 10 billion indicates institutions are reducing their positions. The contango between futures and spot has long been tiresome. This time, it's really different. As the price difference narrows, players will run away, which is quite normal. Below 10 billion... it's a bit quiet. Institutions are also starting to be picky. Supply and demand have changed, and the landscape has shifted. It seems the golden age of arbitrage is over.

View OriginalReply0