2026.01.21

ETH, after a weak rebound near 3178, plummeted to 2911. Will it continue to decline unilaterally? Or will it oscillate downward?

I believe that ETH's upcoming decline will not be as rapid as the drop from 10.7 to 11.21. As shown in the chart, the red line represents the mainstream view in the market, which is to repeat the previous scenario: ETH breaking below 2621 without looking back. However, this is not my preferred plan.

I am more inclined to think that after ending the first wave of decline from 3402, ETH will enter a wide-ranging oscillation, which could last until early February. Then, it will accelerate downward, reaching the end of this wave of decline starting around 4956 near the Gann time window of 2.17, followed by a rebound or a large-scale rally. At that time, ETH could rise to 3800 or even higher.

If the market moves as expected in oscillation, then the next half month will be suitable for short-term trading, buying low and selling high, staying within the range and flipping back and forth.

If it follows the blue route, which is a unilaterally downward trend, then observing small rebounds along the trend and shorting accordingly will be the way to go. The most important thing is to wait until mid-March, when the decline shows signs of stopping, then start to accumulate positions in batches. This way, ETH is very likely to begin a trend upward in the first half of 2026 rather than just a rebound.