Global Wheat Supply Dynamics Support Marginal Gains as Trading Begins

retroactive_airdrop · 2026-01-21T00:13:14+00:00

Wheat futures showed modest gains amid mixed market signals, influenced by updated export forecasts from Russia and the EU. Performance varied by contract, with Chicago SRW down slightly, while Minneapolis spring wheat gained. Weather forecasts indicate limited soil moisture improvement.

retroactive_airdrop

2026-01-21 00:13:14

Abstract generation in progress

Wheat futures kicked off Wednesday with modest upside momentum, reflecting a complex market backdrop shaped by competing supply and demand signals. The overnight session presents a tentative recovery after Tuesday’s mixed performance, where different wheat contracts displayed divergent strength.

International Supply Picture Reshapes Market Expectations

The broader wheat landscape shifted notably with updated export forecasts from major producers. Russia’s wheat export projection for the 2025/26 season climbed to 46.5 MMT, representing a meaningful revision upward from the previous estimate of 44.1 MMT. This reassessment signals robust supply availability from the Black Sea region heading into the new season.

Meanwhile, European wheat exports from July 1 through January 11 totaled 11.6 MMT, trailing the prior-year pace of 11.8 MMT. French soft wheat ending stocks meanwhile improved to 2.8 MMT, demonstrating a marginal accumulation compared to the previous month’s figures.

Contract-Specific Performance and Open Interest Dynamics

The Tuesday session revealed a tale of two markets within the wheat complex. Chicago SRW futures posted minor losses in near-term contracts, though open interest expanded by 6,477 contracts, indicating fresh positioning activity. Kansas City HRW futures demonstrated more pronounced pressure, with contracts retreating 6 to 7 1/4 cents and open interest declining by 823 contracts, suggesting some profit-taking among longs.

Minneapolis spring wheat bucked the broader trend, posting fractional to 2-cent gains in front-month delivery periods—a performance that underscores the technical strength in Northern Plains supply.

Weather and Price Landscape

The seven-day forecast from NOAA projects minimal precipitation across the Southern Plains, with only light rain expected in the SRW-producing regions. This relatively dry pattern offers limited relief to soil moisture conditions heading into planting season.

Current pricing reflects this nuanced backdrop:

CBOT Wheat - Mar 26 contract settled at $5.10 1/2 (down 3/4 cent from Tuesday) and is currently trading up 2 cents. May 26 closed at $5.21 3/4 (down 1 cent), now up 2 cents.

KCBT Wheat - Mar 26 finished at $5.19 1/2 (down 7 1/4 cents from Tuesday) and currently sits up 1 1/4 cents. May 26 closed at $5.31 1/4 (down 6 3/4 cents), presently up 1 cent.

MIAX Wheat - Mar 26 posted gains with a settlement of $5.67 1/2 (up 3/4 cent) and is currently higher by 1 1/2 cents. May 26 closed at $5.78 1/2 (up 1 1/4 cents), trading up 1 3/4 cents this session.

The marginal gains evident in current trading reflect equilibrium between the headwinds of ample global supplies and technical oversold conditions from Tuesday’s selloff in Kansas City contracts.

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