Optimism about the US economy drives bond yield increases

At the start of trading in 2026, the US debt market experienced a clear shift in sentiment. US Treasury bonds came under pressure, and investors showed less interest in traditionally safe assets. This phenomenon directly reflects the growing confidence of market participants in the strength of the American economy.

Data from the beginning of the new year show specific shifts in the bond market. The yield on 30-year US securities increased by 4 basis points, reaching 4.88% — a level last observed at the turn of summer and fall. At the same time, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose, recording 4.19% after a 2 basis point increase. These movements indicate a shift of capital from safe fixed-income instruments toward more risky assets.

Among the factors supporting this dynamic are the latest labor market data. The number of new unemployment insurance claims in the US decreased to one of the least favorable levels in recent months. This indicator is traditionally seen as a signal of the health of the employment market, reinforcing the narrative of economic resilience.

Experts are closely monitoring this scenario. Eugene Leow, a fixed income specialist working at DBS Bank, noted that the observed upward trend in long-term bond yields may reflect investors’ increasingly strong conviction in the economic prospects of the US. His analysis suggests that similar optimism is also manifested in activity in the stock markets, creating a consistent picture of market sentiment.

The evolution of bond yields thus remains a mirror of market participants’ moods — signaling a shift in preferences from defensiveness to changes in exposure to US growth prospects.