Bitcoin and the rebound path: when cooling inflation changes the game

Today’s Bitcoin situation tells a fascinating story. With the current price at $91.17K and a negative performance of -1.98% in the last 24 hours, BTC is in a particularly interesting position. But to truly understand what it means, we need to look beyond today’s numbers and analyze the macroeconomic context shaping the market.

When inflation numbers start to breathe

U.S. inflation has just crossed a critical moment. The latest CPI report revealed core inflation dropped to 2.6% — the lowest level since April 2021 — while the overall figure stood at 2.7%, well below market expectations of 3.1%.

This convergence toward the Fed’s 2% target is not just a statistic to mention: it is the signal investors have been waiting for. With tools like an inflation calculator, analysts can easily monitor these trajectories over time and understand the real impact on currency and alternative assets like Bitcoin.

The market’s immediate reaction was eloquent: BTC gained 2.93% intraday, completely ignoring the geopolitical noise surrounding announcements of possible rate hikes from other central banks.

The Q4 lesson: when volatility sets the stage

Let’s not forget what happened in the previous three months. Q4 2025 proved brutal for Bitcoin: a 23% drop wiped out more than half of the gains accumulated in the previous two quarters, dragging BTC well below its previous all-time high of $126.08K reached in early October.

This period represented a “market cleanup”: leveraged traders were eliminated, support levels broke down, and optimism turned into widespread caution. Yet, prominent analysts like Tom Lee did not change their assessments, continuing to forecast new all-time highs before the end of January 2026.

The first quarter: the historical pattern Bitcoin might follow

The crucial question is not just whether Bitcoin will rise again, but when. Historical data offers a fascinating storyline: the first quarter of the year has historically recorded an average return of 50% and is the second most bullish period for Bitcoin in the calendar year.

With the Q4 massacre now behind us, most of the liquidation concluded, and market sentiment finally ready to turn, all conditions seem to be aligning. It’s not yet the true “buy on dips” that smart investors seek, but macroeconomic signals — particularly cooling inflation — are starting to reverse the wind.

What to expect: the next chapters

With U.S. inflation falling toward Federal Reserve targets and regulatory blocks easing, the cryptocurrency market could finally get the breath of fresh air it needed. Institutional investments, such as Ark Invest quickly repositioning in cryptocurrencies, suggest renewed interest among major players.

Bitcoin at $91.17K may not represent a definitive bottom, but rather the springboard for the rally that historically characterizes the first months of the year. The Fed’s inflation calculator and monthly CPI data will remain key catalysts to watch in the coming weeks.

The correction is not a failure — it’s the stage setting for the next act.