When it comes to investing, it fundamentally relies on controlling losses rather than how often you win. This is the first lesson the market has taught me.

Recently, Bitcoin's performance has indeed been disappointing. From the all-time high of $126,000 in October last year, it has plummeted to $80,000, a decline of over 30%. Many people are now confused—is this the bottom or will it continue to crash?

I've been watching this market for years, and we are currently experiencing a critical moment. Especially for newcomers, understanding the logic behind this wave of market movements and mastering basic trading principles is really crucial.

**What is happening now?**

The main pressure comes from large institutions in the US dumping their holdings. Looking at on-chain data and exchange fund flows makes it clear—on the surface, Bitcoin is still around $110,000, but during US trading hours, certain top exchanges are showing obvious selling pressure.

The US spot Bitcoin ETF has been experiencing continuous large-scale net outflows, and this signal is very obvious. These institutions are like clever hunters, striking decisively when the prey's value is highest, locking in profits and walking away. In other words, the money that bought at high levels is now fleeing, and it's a concentrated exit.

Even more telling is that the outflow volume from centralized exchanges also confirms this trend. One leading exchange recorded a net outflow of 6,249 BTC in 24 hours, ranking high on the outflow list. This kind of one-directional selling pressure poses a clear short-term risk of Bitcoin's price dropping.

Traders are now watching the $107,000 level—once this key support is broken, there could be more stop-loss orders triggered behind it. Things will become more complicated then.

**Look at it from another angle**

But don’t rush to give up. Every major dip in the market is brewing new stories. The key is to understand: are these institutions truly bearish this time, or are they doing a final shakeout? The data shows outflows are indeed happening, but how large are they, and how long can they last? These are the factors that will determine the next move.

Let’s wait and see.