Are the bull and bear turning points really here? Market veterans reveal the true face of this wave of行情

Lately, there’s a sense of déjà vu when watching the market. The screen is filled with the same question: is this a correction period or the prelude to a new bear market?

When I first entered the scene, veterans often talked about the four-year cycle law. Back then, my answer was one word: disbelief. It wasn’t until this wave of行情 crashed down that I truly understood—bull and bear markets are not just words, but realities built with money. Look at the data: #数字资产市场动态 from 126,000 down to 94,000, smaller coins are even more tragic, halved in the mildest cases, with 80-90% declines everywhere. Can we still deny that the market is changing?

The most alerting thing was the abnormal movement at the beginning of the month. $BTC stuck at 110,000, unmoving, while a bunch of altcoins inexplicably doubled or tripled, crazily attracting new buyers. A déjà vu feeling! This pattern is exactly the same as the one before the 2021 bear market. I warned everywhere back then, only to be mocked. As a result, billions in leverage vanished overnight, and many people’s annual gains were wiped out instantly.

Looking at the cycle nodes—after the halving, it’s been 18 months. Every time it reaches this stage, market sentiment swings in the opposite direction. The technical signals are even colder: the 3-year and yearly moving averages are broken, and 72,000 has become the last line of defense hanging over our heads. On the macro level? The story of rate cuts is no longer convincing. Various hawkish tones are overwhelming, and liquidity remains tight. The “market feast” at the end of the year is basically unlikely.

However, ETFs are still continuously absorbing funds, indicating the market hasn’t completely cooled off. But large-scale capital has long been on standby, watching the next trend. Instead of obsessing over whether this is a bull or bear, it’s better to stabilize your own rhythm.

True opportunities never appear during noisy times; they quietly take root in silence. Don’t rush blindly—thinking clearly about the direction is much more valuable than frantic activity.