Traders should watch the policy escalation playbook closely. When major trade decisions roll out with full force, the international response tends to follow a predictable sequence—and that matters for your positions.

First comes the headline announcement, delivered with maximum leverage. Brussels typically follows with formal pushback and veiled hints about countermeasures. Meanwhile, Tokyo will usually frame talks as productive while privately signaling discomfort through subtle channels. London and other allies often request clarification or negotiate backstage.

The real tell? Watch the lag time between each move and how markets price in each stage. The initial shock fades fast, but the second and third waves of policy responses—when they actually materialize—often create the bigger volatility. This cycle has become predictable enough that traders are now front-running the responses before they're even announced, which compresses reaction windows and amplifies swings.

For crypto specifically, these macro trade tensions historically correlate with capital flow shifts. When uncertainty peaks, some traders hedge into digital assets; others flee to stability. The key is timing which side of that flow you're on.