Bitcoin RSI Against Gold Hits 30 for Fourth Time in History: What Happens Next?

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Bitcoin RSI Against Gold Hits 30 for Fourth Time in History

The Bitcoin RSI against gold has dropped to 30 for only the fourth time in Bitcoin’s history, indicating BTC is highly undervalued relative to gold.

The latest development comes as Bitcoin (BTC) continues to underperform against gold (XAU) for over six months. Specifically, after soaring to reach 37 ounces (oz) of gold in August 2025, it has been downhill for BTC, witnessing five consecutive months of declines against gold since then, and on course for a sixth monthly loss.

Amid this decline, BTC has now collapsed to 20 ounces of gold, trapped within a falling channel pattern on the monthly chart. However, market data now confirms that the BTC/XAU pair has now hit an RSI low of 30 for the fourth time in history, confirming that BTC is now undervalued against gold.

Key Points

• Since the rally to 37 ounces of gold in August 2025, Bitcoin has continued to drop against gold.
• This drop has translated to five consecutive monthly losses, as BTC struggles while gold consistently records new all-time highs.
• With BTC collapsing to 20 ounces of gold amid this decline, the 1W RSI on the BTC/XAU pair has dropped to 30.
• This is only the fourth time in history this indicator has hit 30, with each of the three previous times leading to a Bitcoin rebound.

Bitcoin Struggles Against Gold

A veteran analyst spotlighted this recent development while analyzing Bitcoin’s current price action amid the ongoing downtrend. For context, after recovering to retest $98,000 by Jan. 14, BTC has seen persistent declines, with the latest drop to $92,000 leading to $785 million in long liquidations.

This downward push, triggered by macroeconomic uncertainties surrounding tariff announcements, has exacerbated Bitcoin’s downtrend against gold, which began in August 2025, after BTC claimed the peak of 37 ounces of gold.

Bitcoin has now collapsed nearly 46% to 20 ounces of gold, recording five consecutive monthly candle losses since then. With this decline, BTC has now entered a falling channel structure on the 1-month chart against gold, but the latest development may renew hopes of a rebound.

Bitcoin RSI Against Gold Hits 30

Specifically, the Bitcoin 1W RSI against gold has now hit an extreme low of 30, according to chart data. The analyst confirmed that this represents only the fourth time in history that the RSI would drop to this level.

For context, BTC has historically found long-term bottoms versus the yellow metal in this area. Each prior occurrence preceded a strong period of outperformance, meaning sellers were largely exhausted, and value investors began positioning for the next cycle.

Moreover, the developing falling channel on the 1-month BTC/XAU chart bolsters that narrative. Notably, falling channels typically form during corrective phases and resolve with a bullish breakout as momentum flips back to the upside.

Historical Context

Data from the chart also confirms that all the previous times this happened were during Bitcoin bear markets. Specifically, the last time the RSI hit such a low was in November 2022 on the back of major exchange collapse. Shortly after this, Bitcoin recovered from 9 ounces of gold to a high of 34 by March 2024.

Before then, the weekly RSI had dropped to 29.15 in December 2018 during the bear market at the time, as BTC traded for 3 ounces of gold. What followed was a recovery to 10 ounces by June 2019. Meanwhile, the earliest occurrence played out in January 2015, as the RSI hit 27.65. Another uptrend emerged shortly after.