Is Bitcoin running out? An in-depth analysis of the actual supply in the market

Recently, Strategy has once again attracted attention by continuously spending heavily to buy bitcoin. In just one week, they purchased over 10,000 BTC (equivalent to more than 900 million USD). To date, Strategy holds approximately 671,000 BTC, with a total value exceeding 50 billion USD. This figure makes many wonder: how much real bitcoin is still available for purchase in the market?

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around 93.03K USD, with a circulating supply reaching 19,977,915 BTC. But this number is only a small part of the bigger picture.

The actual bitcoin supply is smaller than you think

By design, only up to 21 million BTC will be mined. However, to understand how many days are left until all bitcoin is mined (estimated 2140), we need to look deeper into the current block reward mechanism, which is 3.125 BTC/block, meaning about 450 new BTC are added daily. By 2028, this number will be halved.

But the real determinant is not how much bitcoin remains unmined, but what portion of the 19.97 million BTC already exists can be freely traded.

Data shows:

• Over 30% of bitcoin has not moved for a long time, considered “long-term holdings”
• About 20% are suspected to be lost permanently
• 3.409 million BTC have not moved in over 10 years (including early exchange cold wallets and Satoshi Nakamoto’s coins)

“Silent control” organizations in the market

A new force emerging in the market is long-term investors and institutions. They hold about 14.35 million BTC, accounting for more than 70% of the actual circulating supply that can be traded.

Detailed analysis:

29 listed companies hold a total of 1.082 million BTC. Among them, Strategy alone accounts for 62%, or 671,000 BTC. Notably, even during deep market corrections, these companies continue to accumulate.

Bitcoin ETF funds are also significant:

• BlackRock: approximately 777,000 BTC
• Fidelity: approximately 202,000 BTC
• Grayscale: approximately 167,000 BTC
• Total ETF holdings: 1.311 million BTC

Governments hold about 615,000 BTC, including:

• USA: 325,000 BTC
• China: approximately 190,000 BTC (according to Glassnode estimates)

“Permanently lost” bitcoins are more than you think

A common overlooked issue is: bitcoin is not like traditional currency. Once a private key is lost, that bitcoin will never be able to move again, even though it still exists on the blockchain.

Historical UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) analysis shows:

• Bitcoin “born” from 2010-2014 peaked and then declined rapidly (due to being spent or lost)
• From 2019 to now, the number has remained almost unchanged

Estimates suggest that at least 50% of early bitcoins have been lost, or about 1.06 million BTC. Additionally, the UTXO group from 2009 (mainly Satoshi Nakamoto) holds 1.08 million BTC and has almost never moved.

In total, at least 2.14 million BTC can never be traded.

Bitcoin transaction reserves are… dwindling

The “exchange balance” indicator is the most direct estimate of the amount of bitcoin ready to sell:

Currently, exchanges hold only 2.49 million BTC – the lowest level since 2023. This trend continues downward.

This means: as institutional buying pressure increases, the actual supply from exchanges continues to shrink.

Market structure is changing

The event of hundreds of new companies entering the bitcoin market (from 67 companies in October to 153 now) shows: the “organized accumulation” trend is becoming the main market pattern.

As the demand side (institutions buying) becomes more “organized,” and the supply side (the amount of bitcoin willing to sell) decreases, this creates an underlying momentum for market structure.

In summary: how many days are left until bitcoin is fully mined, but the amount of bitcoin that can actually be bought/sold on the current market is much smaller than the paper figures suggest. This is a critical consideration for smart investors to reflect on.