2026-01-19 09:40:39

Market trend forecasts are oscillating, with the probability of Bitcoin breaking through 100,000 in January significantly decreasing. According to data, this expectation has dropped from 43% yesterday to 24% today, a nearly 50% decline. Meanwhile, the probability of Bitcoin surging to 105,000 USD is only 8%, and bearish voices are growing stronger—there's a 21% chance of dropping to 85,000 USD being favored, and a 7% chance of falling to 80,000 USD. From these numbers, it is clear that market disagreement on short-term trends has increased significantly. Yesterday's market fluctuations seem to have changed many traders' expectations for BTC's rally at the beginning of the year, with more people preparing for a possible correction.

BTC-2,3%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MEVSandwichVictim

· 9h ago

Damn, the probability dropped directly from 43% to 24%. This round of the market indeed scared quite a few people. Was that spike yesterday the trigger that shook out all the bulls? Instead of waiting for 100,000, it's better to set your stop-loss orders now. The 85,000 level already has a 21% probability. Is today another "smart money" harvesting day? Predictive markets are, to be kind, like a guiding light; to be blunt, a probability casino. Are we going to hold 80,000 this week? People are still shouting for a breakthrough to 100,000, but the market gave a warning first. It's time to reassess this wave of the market; the bears are really going all out.

View OriginalReply0

BearWhisperGod

· 9h ago

Damn, 43% directly dropped to 24%, is this how scared everyone gets within a day? --- Starting to be pessimistic again, the 8.5万 probability is now 21%, it feels like everyone is preparing to buy the dip. --- Predicting the market is really like mysticism; yesterday it was bullish about breaking 100,000, but today the tone has changed. --- Listen to this data, it's obviously panic selling, but I actually think it's an opportunity. --- Only an 8% chance of reaching 10.5万? That means no one believes it, which is too absurd. --- Alright, another rollercoaster, finally the bears have a voice. --- The more disagreement there is, the easier it is to get caught. Wait for clearer signals before acting.

View OriginalReply0

SelfRugger

· 10h ago

A 50% drop in one day, the market players are really like weather vanes, yesterday still dreaming of 100,000 dollars, today they are already starting to buy the dip, hilarious.

View OriginalReply0

ForkThisDAO

· 10h ago

Looking at this data fluctuation, 43% directly halved to 24%, and market sentiment has changed. The expectation gap within a single day is so large, it's a bit frightening.

View OriginalReply0

FarmHopper

· 10h ago

Look at this data dropping by half in one day, the market is really scared.

View OriginalReply0

OnlyOnMainnet

· 10h ago

Wow, the 24-hour probability was cut in half directly. How shocking is that... Could yesterday have been the last chance to get on board?

View OriginalReply0