Willy Woo's latest assessment: Bitcoin is expected to surge in the short term, but don't celebrate too early

Well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo recently shared his market outlook, painting a picture of “alternating hot and cold” phases for this wave of the market.

Short-term bullish, medium-term bearish

According to Willy Woo’s data model, Bitcoin is expected to experience a rally from late January to February. His logic is as follows: after funds bottomed out on December 24, they began to steadily recover. This kind of shift usually takes 2-3 weeks to be fully reflected in price movements—and we are currently within this window.

However, he also admits that there are signs of overbought conditions in the short-term technicals, which could suppress the rally. Nonetheless, a more critical signal comes from the futures market. After months of dormancy, on-chain liquidity is recovering—a phenomenon that occurred in mid-2021, leading the previous cycle’s double-top rally.

Based on these positive signals, Willy Woo believes Bitcoin needs to push towards the $98,000 to $100,000 mark. Currently, BTC is around $93,070, leaving some room to reach the target. If it successfully breaks above $100,000, the next focus will shift to the resistance at the all-time high of $126.08K.

Long-term risk signals should not be ignored

But here’s where Willy Woo turns cautious—he remains bearish on the outlook for 2026.

From a macro perspective, since early 2025, liquidity relative to price momentum has been in continuous decline. The market is currently in a hot phase of the cycle but lacks sufficient liquidity to sustain this momentum. Simply put, the thrust is weakening, and what we need is a steady influx of fresh capital.

He points out that if in the coming months a large amount of spot liquidity (i.e., real money from long-term holders) enters the market, it could break this downtrend. Otherwise, his bearish outlook will hold.

Bull market signals are not yet confirmed

There is also one point worth noting: a bear market has not yet been officially confirmed. Usually, a significant outflow of Bitcoin funds is a true bear market signal—such indicators tend to lag behind price peaks. In other words, it’s too early to draw conclusions.

Willy Woo emphasizes that his judgment is entirely data-driven, but he is also prepared to adjust his views at any time based on market changes. This is the professional attitude expected of an analyst.