The Endgame Thinking of the Crypto Market: From "Suicidal Trading" to Financial Freedom

After saying goodbye to the noise on crypto Twitter, I finally understand the most fundamental rule of this market. No longer trading frequently, no longer chasing hot topics, no longer driven by FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out)—this may be the most important decision investors can make in the crypto space.

Twitter is an emotional field, not a source of knowledge

Crypto Twitter is essentially an information island. Browsing the timeline daily, what you see more is the “donkey consensus” under groupthink, rather than rational analysis. Voices claiming to be “experts” flood the platform, yet few truly delve into the underlying logic of the market.

Successful early investors have already exited; why are they still teaching you how to beat them on Twitter? The answer is simple—they won’t. Those still shouting predictions on the timeline generally fall into these categories:

• KOLs needing paid communities to sustain income
• “Opinion leaders” selling various courses
• Intermediaries profiting through referral links

What they need is your “exit liquidity,” not your success.

Fiat devaluation is a feature, not a conspiracy

Bitcoin and Ethereum have no tops because fiat currencies have no bottoms. This devaluation is not a market flaw but a systemic feature. Investors who understand this view holding these two assets see them as necessary hedges against inflation.

From a historical cycle perspective, humanity has never been more prosperous. Nostalgic comments often overlook an objective fact: we are at the all-time high (ATH) of human history.

The Pareto principle governs everything

In the negative-sum game of the crypto market, wealth inevitably concentrates in the hands of a few. This is not a secret conspiracy but a mathematical law.

Wealth ladder (from top to bottom):

1. Centralized exchange founders
2. Layer1 blockchain founders
3. Project founders
4. Early adopters
5. Top traders
6. Liquidated traders
7. Ordinary retail investors

Why can exchanges become the biggest winners? Because they never take on risk but profit from every trade. That’s why almost all exchange founders in history have become billionaires.

The ultimate truth about leverage trading

If you use leverage in the crypto market, losing all your funds is not a matter of “if,” but “when.” The market size is relatively small compared to traditional finance, and your opponents are not only ordinary traders but also include insider trading and manipulation.

Most participants, due to lack of emotional control, continue to kill each other in manual trading. This phenomenon is truly insane.

The real winning strategy: buy early and hold long-term

Successful investment stories are never complicated: deploy fully during market panic, then patiently wait. Several key moments in history confirm this:

March 2020 pandemic crash: When Bitcoin dropped to $4,000 and Ethereum to $100, panic engulfed the market. But this was the golden moment to deploy. For early entrants, the assets accumulated at this low became the foundation of future wealth.

April 2021 bull market peak: This was the most reasonable exit point after risk adjustment. Any persistence beyond this would trigger a correction. Bitcoin then plummeted about 53%, and most altcoins nearly zeroed out.

Late November 2022 bottom: By this time, the market had undergone multiple cleansings, and panic was at its peak. Re-deploying Bitcoin and Ethereum was the last chance to accumulate chips for the next cycle.

The commonality of these three key trades is simple: act early, then do nothing. Just patience.

The value of DeFi airdrops seen through Uniswap and 1inch

Airdrops received during DeFi summer are far more than “free money.” These tokens represent early trust investments in new protocols.

Take Uniswap as an example: from ICO to now, it has achieved a 16666x increase. Those who believed in its value during the airdrop period later witnessed how it became the DEX standard. 1inch’s two airdrops also brought substantial returns to early participants.

The key point: you need to trust your judgment, not be swayed by the noise on the timeline.

Wallet security rankings and trade-offs

Security is always the top priority in crypto asset management. MetaMask and Rabby are trustworthy solutions, each with its focus:

• MetaMask: stronger core code security
• Rabby: obvious advantages in user interaction security

But regardless of which wallet you choose, the key is operational security(OPSEC). Don’t be tempted by so-called “latest products”; features in testing stages often hide risks. Limit orders, cross-chain bridges, and other new features sound appealing, but unstable implementations can directly swallow your funds.

For early testers, the simple advice is: don’t do it. Choose products that have been validated by the market over time; security premiums far outweigh the allure of higher yields.

The economic truth about shitcoins

Most altcoins’ logic is: project teams use free-minted tokens to exchange your Bitcoin, Ethereum, or USD. This is the so-called “demon trade”—you give valuable assets in exchange for tokens created out of thin air.

In the long run, all shitcoins will depreciate relative to Bitcoin, not by coincidence but by necessity. The only exception is Ethereum, which has been the only asset since ICO to maintain its second position stably.

Key insight: if a project cannot beat fiat devaluation (which is the original purpose of cryptocurrencies), what is its meaning?

The three major traps in the market

Trap 1: Obsession with “secret information”
There is no insider info that can make everyone profit simultaneously. This is the Pareto law—wealth always flows to the few.

Trap 2: Pursuit of perfect bottoms and tops
No one can time the market precisely. Using a “range accumulation” method (gradual building positions) is wiser than going all-in. Historically, Bitcoin often drops over 80% from its all-time high; based on this, calculate a reasonable range and wait patiently.

Trap 3: Being dazzled by technological innovation
“Better technology” has no direct impact on price. Projects like Solana, Polygon are essentially learning from Ethereum’s experience. But Ethereum still maintains the second position—what does this tell us? That value proposition is far more important than technical parameters.

The ultimate rule of investing

Capital preservation is the most important rule in investing. Without capital preservation, no matter how skilled you are, bankruptcy risk cannot be defeated.

The path to success is simple but extremely difficult to execute:

• Own, not just trade
• Trust your judgment, not the noise of the timeline
• Buy firmly during panic, sell decisively during prosperity
• Consolidate gains into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins—the “Holy Trinity”

Once you hold enough of these three assets to achieve financial freedom, there’s nothing more to do. Quietly wait, let these assets become a permanent part of your net worth—that’s the endgame.

Postscript

Those still shouting predictions on Twitter are essentially proving one thing: they haven’t truly “succeeded.” Successful people have already exited and are living their lives. Social media is just a toxin that can infect your judgment.

The only legitimate entities on crypto Twitter are: Founders and Brands.

The wisest move after making the right investment decisions is to stop all the noise and embrace silence. This is not laziness but a profound understanding of market laws.