Let's discuss Bitcoin's next move using technical charts. I used the Wyckoff distribution model to analyze a three-day K-line chart. According to this model framework, the current market is in Phase B. Last year, I randomly guessed a top at 126,000 using this model, and it actually reached that level. This time, I plan to replicate the process and see if it can be validated again.

Based on the model's prediction, Bitcoin will fluctuate around 105,000-107,000 before the Spring Festival. Afterwards, there will be a retracement targeting the 95,000-92,000 range to further accumulate and build a bottom. This consolidation cycle is expected to last about three months before the market directly launches towards 150,000. Spot traders just need to hold their positions steady, while futures traders need to precisely time their entries and exits.

From a macro perspective, we are still in a liquidity expansion cycle. The Federal Funds Rate remains near the neutral level, and the large-scale liquidity injection has not truly begun. In this environment, there’s no need to be overly pessimistic. According to the Wyckoff model's projection, Bitcoin may consolidate within the 90,000-105,000 range for another six months. If, after six months, the market still operates within this cycle, then the opportunity to go long will present itself.

This model is particularly useful for analyzing large-cycle spot trends. Futures markets tend to have more aggressive shakeouts, making them prone to repeated liquidations. From a buy position at 86,000, it took nearly two months to reach 98,000, during which the shakeouts were quite fierce, making futures trading somewhat challenging. Ultimately, it depends on whether you're trading spot or futures; your mindset and strategy should be adjusted accordingly.