The following viewpoints offer some insights

Multidimensional Analysis of Bitcoin Price Trends
(1) In-Depth Technical Breakdown
1. Key Indicator Signals - RSI (Relative Strength Index): Current reading is 62.3, not entering the overbought zone above 70, leaving room for further upward movement; caution is needed for potential reversal signals such as price new highs accompanied by RSI divergence.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The 12-day EMA and 26-day EMA maintain a golden cross pattern, with the histogram showing slight expansion, confirming a short-term bullish trend, but lagging indicators require volume confirmation.
- OBV (On-Balance Volume): 24-hour trading volume surged by 38.98%, with OBV rising in sync with price, indicating strong buying interest and momentum supported by volume.
2. Precise Support and Resistance Levels
- Resistance Levels: P1=97,000 USD (Fibonacci 38.2% extension); P2=98,000 USD (upper boundary of previous consolidation); P3=100,000 USD (key psychological and technical resistance).
- Support Levels: S1=92,000 USD (1-hour support level + psychological threshold); S2=90,450.7 USD (trend line, breaking below indicates weakening short-term bullish structure); S3=87,717.9 USD (early 2026 platform, losing this confirms a correction trend).
(2) Cycle Trend Forecast
1. Short-term (1-3 months): Volatile upward movement aiming for the 100,000 mark
- Since the beginning of the year, a 10.84% increase (from $87,412 to $95,512) has been achieved, with market features showing “institutional accumulation, retail exit,” as large transactions over $10 million increased by 59.26%, while small trades decreased by 66.38%.
- Technical indicators are in a multi-cycle resonance strong phase, but caution is needed for profit-taking pressure near the $100,000 level. Short-term consolidation is likely between $92,000 and $98,000, with a pullback to S1 ($92,000) seen as a low-risk entry point.
2. Mid-term (6-12 months): Policy + capital dual-driven, targeting $175,000
- Institutional optimism: VanEck targets $180,000; Standard Chartered predicts $175,000-$250,000; Grayscale expects a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
- Core drivers: Federal Reserve rate cut cycle enhances risk asset appeal; US 401(k) retirement accounts may open to crypto investments; the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” promotes industry regulation, reducing valuation discounts.
- Potential variables: Before the November 2026 midterm elections, policy implementation may accelerate (first half as “policy honeymoon period”), but political uncertainties in the second half could amplify volatility.
3. Long-term (1-2 years): Institutional allocation era begins, price center continues to rise
- Market structure has fundamentally shifted: institutional holdings account for 24%, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF holds 800,000 BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy to become the largest single holder; Grayscale, BlackRock, and Fidelity dominate 89% of the ETF market share.
- Supply and demand tightening: circulating supply approaches the limit; long-term holders (LTH) have sold 1.4 million BTC, easing selling pressure, while corporate treasuries and sovereign funds (such as ADIC, Mubadala) continue to increase holdings, with 1.686 million BTC held by 134 global companies.