#比特币价格预测 Seeing the predictions from Galaxy and Bitwise, my mind flashes back to the crazy times of 2017. Back then, we were also debating how high Bitcoin would go, but the passion was far more intense than it is now.

This time is different. $250,000 sounds like a big number, but Galaxy explicitly stated that by 2026, "due to the broad implied range of options and the unstable macroeconomic environment, it is difficult to make a clear prediction"—this statement is key. They are presenting a slow approaching curve, not a sharp vertical surge. Matt Hougan from Bitwise put it more plainly: over the next ten years, "returns will be strong, but not extremely high."

I have experienced too many cycles. The madness of 2013, the bubble of 2017, the peak of 2021—each time I saw believers' eyes sparkle with the belief that "this time is different." But the rhythm of history is often similar: from extreme greed to deep fear, with countless dreams and regrets in between.

Interestingly, gold and silver are rising now, while Bitcoin is falling. Analysts are debating whether these two are competing or operating independently, but what I see is actually a rotation within the entire safe-haven asset sector. The dollar weakening and increased hedging demand—this is the big backdrop. Bitcoin's performance in this context, to some extent, reflects the market's changing attitude toward risk assets.

Will 2026 really see a reversal? Maybe. But I care more about the process itself. Those who believe Bitcoin will "inevitably" rise to a certain number often overlook the most critical aspects of cycles—the honing of time and unexpected shocks. We have already seen liquidations from over-leverage, retail rotations, and institutions adjusting their pace.

A slow approach is harder to predict than a rapid surge, and it tests human nature even more. This is the real game rule.