Markets anticipate cautious moves by the Federal Reserve: interest rate outlook until March 2026

FreeRider · 2026-01-12T08:09:09+00:00

Financial markets show mixed expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary decisions. By January 2026, there is a 24.4% probability of cuts and a 75.6% chance of stability, with a possible 50.5% likelihood of keeping rates unchanged until March 2026.

FreeRider

2026-01-12 08:09:09

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According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch system, financial markets maintain mixed expectations regarding the upcoming monetary decisions of the Federal Reserve. For the January meeting of next year, there is a 24.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut, while there is a 75.6% probability that the current policy will remain unchanged.

When analyzing the total probability of movements until March 2026, the outlook shows greater caution. The data indicate a 50.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep rates stable throughout this period. However, if adjustments occur, the scenarios are limited: the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut reaches 41.4%, while the possibility of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut is just 8.1%.

The decision calendar is clearly defined, with two critical meetings of the (FOMC) Monetary Policy Committee scheduled for January 28, 2026, and March 18. These meetings will be decisive in shaping the trajectory of interest rates in the coming months, with markets predominantly betting on a stability scenario over aggressive changes in monetary policy.

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