Is CZ Right? The End of the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle and the Dawn of a Supercycle?

Bitcoin’s famous 4-year cycle has been one of the most reliable patterns in crypto history. Every four years, roughly coinciding with the halving event that cuts mining rewards in half, Bitcoin has experienced massive bull runs followed by sharp corrections. We saw explosive peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, each followed by 70–85% drawdowns. The mechanism was simple: reduced new supply met growing demand, creating scarcity-driven rallies.
But many now believe this predictable pattern is breaking.
Changpeng Zhao (CZ), Binance’s founder, has become one of the loudest voices claiming the classic 4-year cycle “might be dead.” In late 2025 and early 2026, he repeatedly argued we are entering a supercycle — a longer, more stable upward trend with shallower pullbacks instead of dramatic crashes.
CZ points to several powerful shifts:
Massive institutional adoption through spot Bitcoin ETFs, now holding over $117 billion in BTC
Steady inflows that reduce retail-driven volatility
Macro tailwinds: expanding global liquidity, Fed rate cuts, quantitative easing
Pro-crypto political signals in the U.S., including removing crypto from the SEC’s 2026 enforcement priority list
Growing corporate Bitcoin treasuries and long-term holder behavior
Many analysts agree the 2024 halving didn’t produce the classic pattern. Bitcoin surged to new highs earlier than expected in 2025, then entered a multi-month consolidation around $90,000 in early 2026 — behavior that looks very different from previous cycles.
Optimists highlight additional drivers: record-high global liquidity, potential inflationary policies (tax cuts, tariffs, mortgage bond purchases), tokenization boom, stablecoin growth projected toward hundreds of billions, and predictions of Bitcoin reaching $150,000–$250,000 in the coming years.
Critics, however, remain cautious. History shows Bitcoin tends to respect its 4-year rhythm until proven otherwise. Several analysts warn that the absence of a dramatic 2025 blow-off top could simply mean the real top — and the subsequent crash — is still ahead in 2026. Overleveraged positions, debt-refinancing risks, and extremely bearish retail sentiment are seen as potential triggers for a severe correction.
As of January 11, 2026, Bitcoin trades in a narrow range between roughly $90,200–$90,900, showing low volatility and neutral sentiment — a classic “coiling” pattern that often precedes big moves in either direction.
So is CZ correct? Has the regular 4-year cycle become history, giving way to a prolonged supercycle?
The evidence is mixed but increasingly compelling. Institutional capital, structural changes, and macro conditions suggest Bitcoin is maturing into a more stable asset class. At the same time, crypto’s history of brutal cycles cannot be ignored.
For now, the most reasonable stance might be cautious optimism: prepare for the possibility of a longer bull market, but never rule out the old cycle’s ability to surprise us one more time.
Whether we get a supercycle or another classic blow-off-and-crash, 2026 will likely be remembered as the year we truly tested whether Bitcoin has changed forever.