#我的2026第一条帖 On January 10th, the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets, after digesting key macroeconomic data, exhibited a typical "toping out and bottoming out" oscillation pattern. Last night, the US December non-farm payroll data (50,000 new jobs, 4.4% unemployment rate) showed mixed results, triggering a "roller coaster" in the market: Bitcoin surged from around 89,800 to approximately 91,999 before pulling back to around 90,500; Ethereum rebounded from around 3,057 to approximately 3,144 before retreating to around 3,080 for consolidation. This round of sharp rise and fall clearly confirmed that the 91,500-92,000 region (BTC) and the 3,140-3,150 region (ETH) have become short-term strong resistance zones. Although support levels at $89,000-89,500 (BTC) and 3,050-3,080 (ETH) are temporarily stable, the market remains in a state of directional confusion within a range due to unclear macro trends and a lack of new catalysts. The market has shifted from an offensive phase to range-bound trading.

The current core characteristic of the market is the repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears at key price levels, with complex capital flow signals: capital flows show structural adjustments, with US spot Bitcoin ETF experiencing net outflows of $1.128 billion for three consecutive days, indicating clear signs of profit-taking by institutions, while Ethereum and alternative coin ETFs recorded net inflows, reflecting a diversification of institutional allocations.
On-chain data shows that Ethereum whales are still accumulating on dips, but market activity has declined, and the fear and greed index has shifted from optimistic to neutral. Although spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have slowed temporarily, whale behavior is diverging (some accumulating on dips, others transferring coins to exchanges for potential selling), indicating that large funds have not formed a consensus on bullishness.
On the macro level, December non-farm payroll data in the US shows mixed features: 50,000 new jobs were below expectations, but the unemployment rate fell back to 4.4%, and wage growth exceeded expectations, delaying market expectations for rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in January has dropped to zero, and investment banks generally expect the first rate cut to be postponed until June. This has intensified disagreements over the Federal Reserve's policy path, and the market awaits more data to form a new consensus.
Regulatory-wise, the global crypto compliance framework continues to become clearer. US legislation and Hong Kong’s stablecoin licensing system are advancing, reducing institutional concerns, while signals of strengthened regulation from central banks also delineate compliance boundaries for the market! Before a volume breakout above key resistance or a breakdown below important support, the market is likely to remain volatile. Investors should stay patient, conserve strength, and wait for the next clear macro or capital flow catalyst to break the deadlock.