Tariffs are not the end point but rather the opening move in a certain game strategy.

As the 2026 tariff ruling approaches, the market is superficially discussing "whether to add tariffs and how much," but the true core has never been about the tariff rates themselves, rather about the game strategy. Tariffs are more like a political lever and negotiation tool rather than purely an economic policy. Looking back at past governance logic, tariffs are often used to create uncertainty, forcing opponents to make concessions, while also demonstrating a "tough stance" to domestic voters. Therefore, this round of rulings is more likely to follow a path of "extreme measures first, negotiations later."

From a market perspective, tariff expectations are reshaping global asset pricing in advance: the safe-haven attribute of the US dollar is strengthening, manufacturing and export-oriented economies are under pressure, and volatility in supply chain-related companies is increasing. But what is truly worth cautioning against is not the short-term shock, but the medium- to long-term structural shifts—capital may once again concentrate in sectors that benefit from "de-globalization." For investors, this phase is more like a window for risk re-pricing rather than the start of a one-sided rally. #特朗普关税裁决临近