How does Bitcoin protect Satoshi's million coins under the threat of quantum computing?

The Bitcoin community has recently engaged in in-depth discussions about the risks posed by quantum computing. While this threat sounds alarming, several industry experts have stated that current technology is far from an immediate danger, and the Bitcoin network is already prepared to respond. The key question is: which addresses are most vulnerable? What actions should be taken in the future?

Who Are the Real Targets of Quantum Attacks?

Not all Bitcoin holdings face the same risk. According to data from on-chain analysis platforms, approximately 4 million BTC are stored in old Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses, where the public keys are fully exposed on the blockchain. This includes millions of assets from Satoshi’s Genesis block era.

Converted at current prices, based on satoshi to USD rates, the value of these assets is enormous. In theory, if quantum computers become truly mature, they could use Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from public keys, gaining control over these funds.

However, the urgency of this threat is much lower than many imagine. Modern Bitcoin addresses have evolved into more secure forms—about 80% of the Bitcoin supply now uses newer scripts like Pay-to-Script-Hash (P2SH), where public keys are kept hidden until funds are spent. This design provides users with a valuable migration window.

What Is the Actual Timeline for the Threat?

Industry consensus suggests that quantum computers capable of threatening Bitcoin’s encryption will take at least 20-40 years to develop. This timeframe is sufficient for the Bitcoin development community to implement necessary upgrades.

The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has developed post-quantum cryptography standards, which can be integrated into Bitcoin protocols. The Taproot upgrade in Bitcoin’s history is a testament to the network’s adaptability—showing that protocols can evolve to meet new challenges.

Will the Market Crash Because of This?

When content creator Josh Otten shared a hypothetical chart showing Bitcoin’s price dropping to $3 due to a quantum hacking event, community reactions varied. Senior analyst Willy Woo pointed out that even in such extreme scenarios, experienced investors would see it as a buying opportunity—most assets are protected, and network resilience remains.

What truly warrants attention is the risk associated with supply dynamics. If some vulnerable addresses are compromised, leading to a sudden influx of old coins into the market, short-term price fluctuations could occur. But in the long run, this will not undermine Bitcoin’s fundamental value as an asset.

What Should Users Do Now?

Immediate action isn’t strictly necessary, but proactive planning is important:

Migration of Address Types: Transfer funds from legacy P2PK addresses to modern formats like SegWit or Taproot, which use hashing to limit exposure of public keys.

Monitor Community Developments: As post-quantum cryptography research advances, Bitcoin protocol upgrades will be gradually rolled out. Staying informed about new standards will facilitate a smooth transition.

Risk Tiering Awareness: Not all Bitcoin holdings face the same level of threat. New address formats already have defensive capabilities, while old addresses are the real focus.

Key Takeaways

• Vulnerability concentrated in a small number of addresses: 4 million BTC are at high risk, but only a small portion of the total supply.
• Ample time for adaptation: A 20-40 year buffer period is enough to complete technological upgrades and network adjustments.
• Solutions already available: Post-quantum cryptography standards are now accessible, no need to wait for breakthroughs.
• Strong network resilience: Bitcoin’s modular design allows for a smooth migration to new security standards.

Quantum computing threats are not fictional risks, but they are also not imminent disasters. The Bitcoin network has demonstrated sufficient adaptability, and community awareness of proactive defense is increasing. The best approach is to neither panic excessively nor ignore the issue entirely—optimize your holdings today and prepare for future technological evolutions.