HBAR between crash and recovery – Is the market showing new strength?

The Hedera coin (HBAR) is currently trading at approximately 0.12 USD and has experienced a 1.42 percent decline within 24 hours. Over the monthly review, there is a more significant decrease of around 13.22 percent – a picture that is also reflected in the current bitcoin crash today movement in the overall market. Despite ongoing selling pressure, there are signals indicating a possible counter-movement. Buyers are actively trying to halt the decline, while at the same time, key technical levels will determine the further course.

Derivatives Markets Send Mixed Signals

A look at the activities of experienced traders and whales reveals a complex market dynamic. Although the so-called “Smart Money” players have predominantly held short positions over the past 30 days, their volume in this area is continuously shrinking. At the same time, successful traders are expanding their long positions – an increase of almost 14 percent over the 30-day period. This behavior often indicates that experienced market participants are changing their direction early before the overall trend reverses.

The 100 largest addresses in the network remain in the long area, even though their engagements have slightly decreased. This mixed sentiment amplifies uncertainty: the majority are betting on further price declines, but the decreasing short volume and the stable long positions of the top addresses suggest that parts of the market do not believe in a massive crash.

Technical Support Versus Breakout Patterns

The daily chart paints a critical picture: the bearish flag pattern remains intact and signals further downside risk. If HBAR falls below the level of 0.108 USD, this pattern could be confirmed – with target levels for a decline of up to 31 percent. At 0.102 USD, the last significant support line awaits before the path for a larger crash would be cleared.

However, resistance is showing on the demand side. The Money Flow Index reveals a bullish divergence between December 9 and 29: while the HBAR price was falling, the MFI was rising. This means buyers continued to step in during pullbacks and prevented the pattern from collapsing. The lower boundaries of the flag pattern have proven to be resilient.

Critical Price Levels for the Next Phase

The bullish side needs an increase of about 6.9 percent to reach again 0.126 USD. This level would be crucial to weaken the flag pattern and interrupt the short-term downtrend. Further progress above 0.139 USD would resolve the bearish pattern and enable a neutral to bullish scenario again.

For the bearish side, 0.108 USD remains the key line. A break below would intensify the technical picture and increase the likelihood of the 31 percent crash.

Conclusion: Market at the Threshold

HBAR is at a critical point. The interplay of decreasing short positions among professionals, stable long positions of the largest address holders, and the bullish MFI divergence suggest that not all market participants expect a massive price plunge. However, selling pressure remains significant. As long as HBAR holds above 0.108 USD, there is a possibility that the expected decline will not materialize – provided that the supporting indicators hold.