Gold Price Prediction: UBS Sees $5,000 Gold in Early 2026

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Commodities are set to regain a central role in investment portfolios as supply constraints, geopolitical uncertainty, and long-term structural trends reshape global markets.

According to UBS Wealth Management, the combination of tightening supply and resilient demand is creating a favorable backdrop across the asset class, with metals and agriculture standing out.

Key Takeaways

• UBS sees gold reaching $5,000 in early 2026, driven by central bank demand, lower real rates, and geopolitical risk.
• Commodities are expected to regain importance as supply shortages and macro uncertainty support prices.

Structural Shortages Support Industrial Metals

UBS sees copper and aluminum as key beneficiaries of the global energy transition. Electrification, renewable infrastructure, and grid expansion continue to drive demand faster than new supply can be brought online. This imbalance is expected to keep upward pressure on prices well into 2026. Oil markets, while currently oversupplied, are also forecast to stabilize later in the year as demand improves and spare capacity remains limited.

Gold remains the most compelling opportunity within commodities. Dominic Schnider points to sustained central bank buying, expanding fiscal deficits, and lower U.S. real interest rates as key drivers behind the metal’s strength. Persistent geopolitical risks further reinforce gold’s role as a defensive asset in an increasingly uncertain macro environment.

Price Targets Point to New Highs

UBS now expects gold to climb to $5,000 per ounce by March, maintain those levels through much of the year, and ease toward $4,800 by the end of 2026. In a more stressed scenario, tied to rising political or financial instability in the United States, prices could extend even higher, potentially reaching $5,400 per ounce.

While commodities can be volatile, UBS argues their performance is strongest during periods marked by inflation risk, supply disruptions, or geopolitical shocks. In such environments, broad commodity exposure — combined with targeted positions in gold — can improve portfolio diversification and offer protection against macro-driven market stress.

Outlook: Commodities as a Strategic Allocation

With demand rising, supply constraints deepening, and global risks far from resolved, UBS believes commodities are entering a renewed phase of relevance. Gold, in particular, is expected to remain a cornerstone hedge as investors navigate fiscal uncertainty, political risk, and shifting monetary conditions through 2026.