#数字资产行情上升 Tonight, the US initial jobless claims data will be released, and this number determines the mood of the crypto market.

Why is this so important? Simply put, fewer initial jobless claims—good employment—means the Federal Reserve has no reason to cut interest rates—high interest rates continue to suppress risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, if the number increases, expectations for rate cuts rise, and liquidity easing can attract funds back into the crypto market, making a rebound more likely.

In previous instances, unexpected declines in the data directly dampened market expectations for rate cuts, and the crypto space was indeed hit hard. But markets can be quite unpredictable: when strong data is released, institutions often hedge against dollar depreciation with Bitcoin, leading to an influx of funds.

After tonight’s release, there are likely three scenarios. If the data is below expectations, crypto assets may test support levels. If above expectations, the market could rebound. If the data meets expectations, expect continued volatility, but beware of secondary shocks from subsequent Federal Reserve statements.

Want to seize the opportunity? Focus on two key signals: first, how much the data deviates from market expectations—greater deviation means more volatility. Second, observe the flow of funds in spot ETFs—this reflects the true positioning of institutions. In a macro-driven market, initial jobless claims almost serve as the command stick for short-term crypto market movements.

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