2026-01-08 10:32:56

From the weekly level perspective, although Bitcoin has rebounded to around 102K, this does not mean a trend reversal. This is very important — a rebound and a reversal are two different things.

Currently, BTC's macro structure remains bearish. Using 3D divergence to speculate, the short-term rebound target indeed points to 102K, and we are already halfway there. But the key point is, as long as the price stays below 102K, the overall negative pattern has not changed.

What’s more worth noting is that BTC has been trading below this area for the 9th week. The weekly SMA still acts as resistance. What does this mean? It suggests that we may be forming a new downtrend, and the boundaries are not fully established yet. Once confirmed, we could see even lower levels within the year.

Looking back, in early October, when BTC was still at 126K, we made this judgment based on bearish divergence on the 1W/2W levels. In the short term, buying the dip during a downtrend is acceptable, but for long-term positioning, we need to wait for strong long-term signals. It’s not the time yet.

BTC1,19%

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MechanicalMartel

· 01-10 09:56

A rebound ≠ a reversal. I agree with this statement, but I'm just worried that another bunch of people will be迷蛀ed by 102K. The SMA has been pressing down for nine weeks and hasn't broken through yet. That's indeed a bit risky. You can buy on dips, but don't go all in.

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MetaDreamer

· 01-09 14:40

A rebound does not equal a reversal. This point is so important, many people get trapped just like that. The 102K barrier hasn't been broken yet, and the bearish pattern remains solid. The pressure from the weekly SMA is no joke. It's been 9 weeks, and it feels like this correction has just begun. The probability of hitting a new low within the year is still quite high. Let's wait for long-term signals. Going all-in now is just gambling mentality. Short-term dips can be tried, but don't go all-in. The risk of breaking down is right here. I feel that the bearish divergence prediction during the 126K wave was quite accurate. Let's keep observing. It's just a little bit away from confirming the trend, but we're still in this tug-of-war.

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PhantomMiner

· 01-08 13:31

A rebound ≠ a reversal, I agree with that, but is 102K really that critical? Feels like it's still testing repeatedly. Let's wait until the SMA loosens completely; entering now is indeed too early. Is it going to hit a new low again? It's a bit annoying. It's been 9 weeks of resistance at the top, and there's really no hope in sight. Better to lie low until long-term signals appear. Buying the dip is a gamble, but don't bet on a new low within the year; the risk is too high. This analysis was actually heard in October, and it's still being repeated? The probability of hitting a new low within the year is quite high; I have already reduced my position. Getting stuck at 102K is really annoying; if it can't break through, just keep going down.

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ApeWithNoFear

· 01-08 10:59

A rebound does not equal a reversal. This is a well-known fact I've mentioned before. Is there still someone who doesn't understand? 102K isn't that impressive anyway; it still has room to fall further. The weekly SMA has been acting as resistance for nine weeks, and the bearish trend must continue. A new low within the year is very likely. The October analysis was correct; now we just wait for signals, and act when the time comes. Another opportunity for low-cost buying? No rush, there's still plenty of time.

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BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 01-08 10:58

Rebound ≠ reversal. I'm tired of hearing this phrase. The key is whether you can buy the dip and make money. Is the 102K line really that magical? Probably going to break again. The SMA has been pressing down for 9 weeks and still dragging on. Can we expect some surprises before the end of the year? Calling for a short in October and still short now. I don't believe you. Long-term signals? Can't wait. I'll cut a short first and see.

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GateUser-1a2ed0b9

· 01-08 10:52

A rebound ≠ a reversal. There's nothing wrong with that statement; it all depends on whether 102K can truly hold steady. The SMA resistance detail is a bit intense; it does look like there's a sign of breaking to a new low. Let's observe first, don't rush to go all-in. The judgment in October was quite accurate; it's indeed very difficult to find opportunities in this wave. Let's wait and see; anyway, it can't run away.

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DegenDreamer

· 01-08 10:45

A rebound does not equal a reversal, and there's nothing wrong with that statement. 102K is a threshold; if it can't break through, expect continued decline. Being suppressed by the weekly moving average for 9 weeks is definitely not a good sign. The probability of hitting a new low within the year is indeed quite high.

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AirdropF5Bro

· 01-08 10:40

Rebound ≠ Reversal. That's so true; many people fall for this trap. Below 102K, you still need to endure, as the weekly chart shows resistance there.

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