Recently, I’ve been focusing on the 1-hour chart of BTC and found some interesting points. From a technical perspective, the downtrend is very clear, with all moving averages in a bearish alignment—MA7 is stuck below MA30 at 92026.7 versus 92738.8, and the EMA has also crossed bearish. These classic trend reversal signals are right in front of us. Looking at MACD, the DIF at -305.3 has already fallen below DEA at -245.8, and it’s still diverging downward, with the red histogram bars continuously enlarging, indicating that the bearish momentum is rapidly building up. The Bollinger Bands are wide open and pointing downward, with the current price at 91920.8 firmly pressed against the middle and lower bands. The support level below is at 91474.8. If this level breaks, a waterfall decline is likely to follow.

On-chain data also confirms the same story. Over the past 24 hours, exchange inflows of BTC have surged by 15%, especially with large addresses frequently moving assets, and a large number of sell orders are brewing in the dark. The total network holdings are shrinking, and funding rates have turned negative. These signals suggest not just a simple shakeout—they clearly indicate that the main players are offloading.

From a macro perspective, the shadow of an economic recession in early 2026 still looms over the global markets. The Fed’s hawkish rhetoric has resumed, and risk assets are trembling. Rumors of regulatory tightening in the crypto space are also fermenting, and market sentiment indices have fallen into the "fear" zone. These factors combined leave little positive news for the bulls.

Considering these three dimensions of data, the probability of BTC’s short-term decline is very high. The support line at 91475 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. If the hourly candle closes below this level, the next target is directly at the psychological level of 90000, and it might even test the previous low of 89000. Rebound? Don’t count on it in the short term; all technical rebounds could be good opportunities for shorting.

Operational advice: reduce long positions if you have them, and consider shorting around 92500 during a rebound, with a stop loss at 93555 (the upper Bollinger Band). If you are more conservative, it’s better to wait and observe until a clear breakdown signal appears before taking action. Data never lies; the truth is hidden in those numbers.