Ray Dalio's 2026 Investment Scenario Analysis: The Core Logic Behind the US Dollar Depreciation and Gold Rise

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio recently released an investment outlook that offers an in-depth perspective on this wave of market volatility. His analytical framework reveals a key trend — a US dollar depreciation cycle is taking shape, and traditional safe-haven assets like gold are poised for an upward window.

From a monetary policy perspective, the combination of global central banks' easing stance and fiscal expansion is driving down real interest rate expectations, exerting long-term pressure on dollar-denominated assets. Meanwhile, geopolitical polarization and the diversification of reserve currencies are clearly intensifying, all of which weaken the traditional dominance of the US dollar.

Against this backdrop, the appeal of gold is re-emerging. As a hard asset without credit risk, gold can hedge against currency depreciation and provide protection amid rising geopolitical uncertainties. Historical cycle data shows that whenever the dollar is in a depreciation phase and real interest rates are negative, gold tends to perform strongly.

For investors, this logic implies that asset allocation needs to be dynamically adjusted. Relying solely on a single currency or stock assets carries increasing risk, and moderate allocation to gold and other safe-haven tools has become a consensus choice among institutional investors. The year 2026 is particularly critical as a window for asset rebalancing.