In the first week of 2026, the crypto market broke the dull atmosphere at the end of last year, with Bitcoin (BTC) making a strong push. Not only did it recover the psychological barrier of $90,000, but it also continued to advance toward the previous resistance level. The question is, does this "good start" signal the beginning of a new bull market, or is it just another technical rebound?

From a technical perspective, some positive signals are indeed flashing. The rally starting around $87,500 has formed a classic upward structure characterized by "higher lows and successive breakthroughs of previous highs." More importantly, Bitcoin has stabilized above the 20-month exponential moving average (about $88,000), which is regarded as the long-term bull-bear dividing line. This suggests that the deep correction from the October 2025 high may have been effectively contained. Sounds promising, but risks are also accumulating.

On the 4-hour and daily charts, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has entered overbought territory—Bitcoin's 4-hour RSI even touched 78 at one point. In this state, short-term profit-taking begins to accumulate, and the price will eventually need to consolidate or pull back to release these pressures. Also, do not overlook the zone between $93,000 and $94,500, which was a previous area of high trading volume; sell orders here could be quite heavy.

Currently, the market is at a critical point between bulls and bears. Technical signals, on-chain data, and macroeconomic background all need to be considered comprehensively to determine the true direction of the market.