Having a milk tea in the morning, I casually checked the liquidation data, and the screen was flickering all in red.

In the chat group, everyone was wailing: "$ETH 3280 long positions still have hope?"

Hope? It’s been gone for a long time.

The story of the candlestick chart is very clear — from 3308 straight down to 3086, with no window for escape in between. This is not an ordinary decline; it’s an organized, rhythmic "door closing on the dog."

A few days ago, it was oscillating around 3300 repeatedly, seemingly gathering strength on the surface, but in reality, injecting hallucinations into retail traders. The illusions of "it can’t fall further" and "a rebound is coming" once established, cause funds to rush in with the trend. When long positions pile up, the big players simply withdraw their orders. The free fall begins.

The current market looks very bad. The MACD death cross is widening, trading volume is all selling pressure, and the bulls have no power to fight back.

Many people see such a large decline and start to get restless, wanting to buy the dip. But at this stage, buying the dip is basically gambling with your principal on probabilities. If you catch it, you’re lucky; if not, you’re doomed.

In the short term, don’t chase shorts, beware of a "dead cat bounce" rebound. Wait until the rebound appears. When the rebound comes, it’s not to save the trapped positions, but to establish new short positions.

From a technical perspective: if the rebound reaches the 3150-3160 range, that’s basically the last mercy from the big players. Enter short positions without hesitation. The more aggressive can even start building positions around 3130. Place the stop loss at 3185, don’t gamble against your orders.

The downward target is very clear — first look at the 3050 psychological level, then the 3000 big level. Once the previous low is broken, there’s no obvious support left.

Those who survive long in this market are the ones with small nerves. Those who die quickly are the ones who think they can precisely buy the dip.