Recently, ETH has been oscillating around the $3230 level, looking calm as a mirror, but under the surface, dark currents are surging. I wonder if everyone has experienced this—staring at the order book until their eyes are almost blurred, yet unable to grasp the underlying logic.

Honestly, even traders with over ten years of experience have to admit that this wave of market movement is somewhat unusual. On the surface, it appears to be a normal sideways consolidation, but in reality, it’s an invisible battle between bulls and bears. Most importantly, the current market structure has become quite fragile—close to $800 million in short positions is like a sword hanging overhead, ready to trigger a chain reaction at any moment.

Let me break down the current situation. ETH is bouncing back and forth around the $3230 mark, with the $3300 level almost serving as the current decisive line. Don’t think this is an exaggeration—just look at the position data to understand. Near this price level, the density of short positions is alarmingly high, totaling close to $809 million. This magnitude is enough to cause big trouble in a sudden breakout.

On the other hand, the bulls are not in an easy position either. There are $1.053 billion in long positions piled up below $3150. Once this line of defense is broken, the situation that follows is predictable—there will be a series of forced liquidations, like dominoes falling one after another, spiraling out of control.

There’s also a detail that’s easy to overlook. Many retail traders only look at the position data but don’t understand the exchange’s behind-the-scenes “auto-liquidation” rules. Simply put, when the price quickly breaks through a key level, causing one side’s margin to become insufficient, the exchange will automatically liquidate the most severely losing positions to balance risk. This mechanism seems neutral, but in extreme market conditions, it often becomes the last straw that breaks the camel’s back, amplifying small fluctuations into large-scale moves.