Take a close look at the recent market movements, and I notice that Ethereum's price structure feels somewhat familiar—like it's recreating the key market phase from late Q3 to early Q4 of 2019.

Why do I say that? Mainly because the macro background does have some similarities. Looking back to 2019, the Federal Reserve conducted three consecutive rate cuts in July, September, and October, marking the first easing cycle outside of a crisis since the financial crisis. At that time, the market began to anticipate a gradual improvement in liquidity, and overall risk appetite was slowly recovering.

Another detail worth noting is that in mid-September 2019, the US short-term funding market suddenly experienced liquidity stress, with overnight rates fluctuating sharply. The Fed responded by restarting repo operations to stabilize the market. Although officially described as a "technical adjustment," it was essentially a signal to inject short-term liquidity.

Additionally, during that period, global trade tensions eased temporarily, risk aversion in the market started to decline, and hot money gradually shifted toward risk assets.

Applying this framework to the current situation—we are also witnessing the start of a rate cut cycle, with central banks supporting liquidity through various measures, and the international environment remains relatively calm. Using the same perspective, we are in a very special time window: the easing expectations are already in place, but substantial liquidity has not yet been fully released.

In this scenario, prices usually do not surge in a straight line. Instead, they tend to oscillate repeatedly, and there might even be a retest of lower levels. The real trend-driven move will only begin once market sentiment and capital conditions resonate together. Currently, we may be in this brewing and oscillating phase, and patience might be wiser than rushing.