2026-01-08 10:20:56

Polymarket recently exhibited an interesting divergence phenomenon. After analyzing 295,000 historical markets on the platform, it was found that 63.16% of contracts had a 24-hour trading volume of zero, meaning that over 60% of short-term markets have essentially become placeholders.

Liquidity issues are indeed severe. In comparison, the average trading volume in sports markets is 30 times that of crypto markets, indicating that the funds are not in the same league. Coupled with the extreme head effect—just 505 super contracts monopolize 47% of the total trading volume across the platform—it’s very difficult for retail investors to get a share.

However, the long-term market outlook differs. The average liquidity in this segment is 45 times that of single-day markets. U.S. political contracts are the most active, with an average trading volume reaching $28.17 million, making them the main flow of funds. Interestingly, the geopolitical sector is rapidly rising, with an active share of 29.7%, becoming the fastest-growing area.

Overall, Polymarket is heading down two different paths: one is high-frequency sports betting, and the other is macro political hedging tools.

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TestnetScholar

· 01-11 09:45

Sixty percent of the market is just for show? How dead does it have to be for that to happen? All the money is flowing into those five hundred plus top contracts, retail investors are really having a hard time even getting a sip of soup. However, the rise of the political sector is quite interesting. It seems that the real players are all betting on macro trends, leaving the sports side to the gamblers. The polarization of Polymarket is a bit outrageous—one side cold, the other hot. The ecosystem still isn’t mature enough. Wait, only 47% of trading volume is monopolized by five hundred contracts? The concentration of top players is even more exaggerated than I thought. Honestly, it’s just that the sports market is too competitive, and the political market is where big funds are truly concerned. That logic still makes sense. Why does it feel like everyone is playing US politics? Geopolitics accounts for less than 30%. What are people worried about? Liquidity is so poor that newcomers probably can’t find trading partners. I see many contracts that no one is even touching.

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MetaMuskRat

· 01-11 04:51

Sixty percent of contracts are untraded, which is outrageous. It was obvious early on that Poly would become a top amusement park.

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CryptoMom

· 01-09 10:47

Wow, 63% of contracts have no trading? This platform is really a bit shady, retail investors just get cut A 30x gap in the sports market, no wonder only the big players are making money The geopolitical sector is rising so quickly, it seems like institutions are laying out their plans Basically, the platform differentiation is too severe—either earning passively or getting trapped

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AirdropHermit

· 01-09 01:07

Sixty percent of the market is just for show? That's the true picture of Polymarket, retail investors are still dreaming there.

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LiquidationWatcher

· 01-08 10:49

63% of contracts have no trading... That's outrageous, it means most of Polymarket's markets are zombies. Basically, only the top players are playing, retail investors can only get cut. If this continues, prediction markets will still become a game for the wealthy. Political markets are getting more popular, it seems that the real capital flow is still in macro hedging.

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AirdropATM

· 01-08 10:49

63% of contracts are untraded, isn't this a great place to scam people haha The sports market is so hot, have everyone switched to betting on football? Geopolitical risk has risen to 29.7%, now that's real big money gameplay

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FloorPriceNightmare

· 01-08 10:48

Sixty percent of the market has no trading volume? Isn't this just a dead pool? No wonder retail investors get trapped immediately after entering.

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Anon4461

· 01-08 10:44

Honestly, 63% of contracts have zero trades in a day, which is ridiculous—definitely a zombie market. The liquidity in the sports sector is so strong; it seems retail investors have really all gone to betting on sports, haha. The rise of the geopolitical sector is quite interesting; it feels like big funds are using this to hedge. The top 505 contracts account for 47%, this Matthew effect is incredible—retail investors are playing no role. However, there still seems to be an opportunity in long-term political forecasting; it all depends on who can catch the rhythm.

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ChainMemeDealer

· 01-08 10:27

Damn, 60% of the market is completely dead. This is just nurturing zombies.

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