#期权市场 The $28.5 billion options expiration scale reminds me of the frenzy back in 2017. At that time, we were still navigating the futures market, and options trading was a game for the few. Now, it’s clear that market maturity has significantly increased.

The most interesting part is the structure of this expiration— the maximum pain point is set at $96,000, while Bitcoin is still hovering below $90,000. Historically, the volatility patterns before and after large-scale options settlements are somewhat predictable. I experienced a similar scenario in 2021, when market participants' psychological battles were greatly amplified, especially in a holiday period with thin liquidity.

What’s truly worth reflecting on is that the combined scale of BTC and ETH options this time has doubled compared to the same period last year. What does this indicate? The leverage effect in the derivatives market is amplifying, and participants’ betting sizes are escalating. Beneath what seems like a bullish setup, it’s actually a final showdown between bulls and bears at this price point.

From my years of observation, the larger the expiration scale, the more likely it is to become a market turning point. Not because of some mysterious force, but because of the multitude of participants, complex positions, and enormous pressure to close. How this Friday will unfold is better observed through the movements of those large positions— their choices often speak more truthfully than analysts’ words.