#预测市场 The prediction market is indeed accelerating in validating its commercial value. From the flow of funds, Intercontinental Exchange invested $2 billion in Polymarket, Coinbase acquired The Clearing Company, and Kraken plans to launch prediction markets in 2026 — these are not just hype, but actual actions by traditional financial institutions and mainstream exchanges.

Key data points worth noting: Tether's per-user profit has become top-tier in the industry, with trading volume and profitability of stablecoins both exploding, providing infrastructure support for the underlying trading settlements of prediction markets. Kalshi and Polymarket have shed their early "only betting on elections" label, with trading depth and participation expanding.

From an on-chain perspective, the growth logic of prediction markets is very clear: after regulatory clarity, institutional willingness to enter increases, counterparty liquidity improves, and competition for transaction fees intensifies but is offset by increased trading volume. The proportion of institutional participation in Polymarket continues to rise, representing a qualitative change rather than just an increase in quantity.

However, it is important to pay attention to who is truly accumulating assets on the supply side in this round of layout, and who is just generating traffic. The background of Coinbase's acquisition of The Clearing Company — with the CEO having experience in growth at both Polymarket and Kalshi — indicates that mainstream exchanges are competing for core operational talent, which usually signals industry consolidation.