#数字资产行情上升 Is Ethereum reenacting the story of 2019? This time it might really be different

Recently, looking at Ethereum's trend, I increasingly feel like it’s replaying the old script from late Q3 to early Q4 of 2019.

Let's look at the background back then: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in July, September, and October. This was the first time since the financial crisis that the Fed proactively entered a loosening cycle during non-crisis periods, and the market started to speculate that liquidity would improve. In mid-September of the same year, there was a small incident—the US short-term funding market suddenly tightened, with overnight rates jumping wildly. The Fed quickly launched repo operations to stabilize the situation. On the surface, it was called a "technical adjustment," but in reality, it was short-term liquidity injection. Plus, global trade tensions began to ease, and risk assets started to attract attention again.

The current situation is somewhat similar. The easing cycle has begun, and central banks have taken supportive actions on liquidity, while the international environment isn't as tense.

This is where it gets interesting. During the phase where "loose expectations have already taken root, but actual liquidity hasn't fully released," prices usually don't skyrocket directly. Instead, there are various oscillations, even testing lower points again. A true trend only starts when market sentiment and funding conditions resonate with each other. We might still be in that brewing and wrestling process right now.