#数字资产行情上升 Friend's cousin invested 5,000 USDT last fall, and after three days, his account was down to 3,200. He was confused and asked if he was just extremely unlucky.

After reviewing his trading records, I understood—every order was full leverage, mistakes kept repeating, he added to positions three times in a row, and the last two times he was directly liquidated. This isn't a matter of luck; it's a classic case of "correct market direction but deadly position management."

I gave him eight practical trading guidelines. After three months, his account recovered to 4,800. Although he didn't achieve the dream of getting rich overnight, he could at least sleep well.

**Key Point 1: Capital Allocation Method—Stop Loss per Trade at 2%**

Divide your total capital into five parts, and only trade with 20% each time. Set your stop loss firmly at 2%. This way, even if you lose five times in a row, the total loss is only 10%, leaving room for a comeback.

On-chain data shows that novice traders place an average of 21 orders in their first month. Using this method, the maximum drawdown dropped from 38% to 9%. The difference is huge—just imagine.

**Key Point 2: Follow the Trend, Trust the Faith**

In December 2023, the daily chart of BTC's EMA30 clearly pointed downward. I advised him to stay out of the market and wait. He listened. As a result, the price fell all the way to 40,000, and he avoided 25% of the losses.

The truth is brutal—aligning with the trend is a thousand times more reliable than stubbornly holding onto beliefs.

**Key Point 3: Never Chase Coins with Over 300% Gains**

Coins that surge over 300% within three days typically give back about 80% of their gains within two weeks. This is a classic pump-and-dump pattern.

In December, a MEME coin surged 450% intraday, and he held back from chasing. Five days later, the coin returned to its original level. A single rational decision can prevent a major crash.

**Key Point 4: MACD Zero Line as a Market Signal**

Consider going long only when a bullish crossover occurs below the zero line, and reduce positions when a death cross appears above the zero line. This basic signal can filter out at least half of the false signals.

Backtesting shows that this logic has a win rate of 64%. Much more reliable than trading based on feelings.

**Key Point 5: Only Add to Winning Positions, Don't Average Down on Losing Trades**

If the price rises after entry, add to your position every time it increases by 10%. But if the trade is losing, adding more will only deepen the loss.

He used this logic to turn his SOL position into a +38% profit. Meanwhile, traders who kept adding to their positions still held a -15% loss on SOL.

**Key Point 6: Price Rises Without Volume Are "Air"**

Low-volume upward moves at low levels mean genuine capital inflow; high-volume stagnation at high levels indicates major players quietly offloading.

On December 9, APT experienced a massive breakout with high volume. He took a small position to test the waters. The next day, with decreasing volume, he quickly reduced his position and avoided the subsequent -12% plunge.

**Key Point 7: Multiple Moving Averages for Navigation**

Use the 3-day moving average to catch intraday trends, the 30-day for medium-term direction, the 84-day to monitor the main upward wave, and the 120-day to assess the overall trend.

Wherever the price is relative to these lines, follow that line. This approach prevents guessing tops and bottoms and helps avoid getting lost in the signals.

**Key Point 8: Daily Three-Question Review Method**

Every day, ask yourself three questions: ① Is the logic of this trade valid? ② Is the entry signal a real confirmation or a false one? ③ Am I being driven by emotions?

Write down your answers in a journal and review after a week. He found that 83% of his losing trades were driven by emotions. Afterward, he blacklisted impulsive trading.

Opportunities in the market are always there. The real bottleneck is whether you have a reliable trading system.