Bitcoin: Whales Anticipate a Dip Before a New Rise

Source: CoinTribune Original Title: Bitcoin: Whales Anticipate a Dip Before a New Rise Original Link: https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-whales-anticipate-a-dip-before-a-new-rise/ At $90,701, the bitcoin price serves as a balance point between short-term optimism and macro caution. While some observers see bullish signals, the whales—those large influential holders—have not yet validated a sustainable recovery. They seem to anticipate a lower support test, around the Yearly Open at $87,500.

Bitcoin and Crypto: The Battle of Invisible Supports Below $91K

Material Indicators published an analysis illustrating this struggle:

The bulls try to defend the support at the Timescape level of January 5, 2026, but the whales appear to aim for a support test closer to the annual open, before a Golden Cross forms on the daily chart to trigger the next rally.

In other words, as long as $87,500 has not been retested, the likelihood of a sustained rebound on BTC remains uncertain. Technically, a weekly Death Cross (bearish crossover of long-term moving averages) could form—a signal traditionally interpreted as increased bearish pressure.

Yet, the weekly RSI slightly exceeds 41, a threshold some analysts watch as a potential reversal sign. But without confirmation by a weekly close above $101,500, bullish forces will struggle to prevail.

Long-Term Signals That Temper Short-Term Euphoria

In crypto, excitement from intraday movements can mask structural risks. For those analyzing longer timeframes, the trend is not yet clear. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, explained this tension:

The battle for this level is ongoing right now. If it doesn’t happen in the next 24 hours, I think it will occur after a Death Cross formation on the weekly chart, around mid-month.

This tweet illustrates the tension between bullish and bearish forces. Beyond daily prices, Trend Precognition signals over 6 and 12 months show bearish movement probabilities (48 over 6 months, 42 over 12 months). This means that even if the short term looks constructive, the long-term structure remains fragile.

The crypto community knows that technical levels like the weekly RSI or the 50-week SMA are key thresholds to validate sustainable reversals. Without these confirmations, positive moves can turn into bull traps—where bullish traders get caught in a sudden reversal.

In other words, BTC may oscillate well, but only the long term truly dictates the macro cycle.

Fed, Macro, and Illusions of a Premature Bull Run

Early 2026 also gives the impression of a favorable macro environment. Recent movements in traditional markets—especially the drop in bond yields and Fed rate-cut expectations—have supported risk assets, including crypto. This translated into a price recovery for bitcoin and other digital assets.

Yet, this dynamic is not linear. Even if BTC remains “up” 3% for the week, it lost 2% in 24 hours according to recent data. This oscillation shows that bullish moves are sensitive to overall market volatility.

At the same time, Ethereum shows even more marked fragility than BTC. Its 3- and 6-month trend signals display high bearish probabilities—a stereotype rarely observed in historical data. This does not rule out a tactical rebound but indicates a more fragile structure.

This global context recalls a fundamental rule of the crypto industry: speculation often feeds short term, but long-term analysis wins out in the end.

4 Key Figures to Remember

• $90,701: current bitcoin price, reflecting a tension zone
• $87,500: crucial support monitored by the whales
• $101,500: 50-week SMA level to validate for a real reversal
• 48 & 42: Trend Precognition scores for BTC over 6M and 12M (indicating possible bearish pressure)

In the crypto-sphere, predicting ATHs or ALTs is part of the game. Skeptics highlight cautious technical signals, but the most enthusiastic remain convinced that a historic bull run in 2026 is possible. Technical dips are not ends in themselves but often springboards toward remarkable rises. For the bullish, the story is not yet written.