Can XRP reach $20? The answer given by Elliott Wave Theory

Despite XRP falling 7.52% along with the broader market today, its recent rebound momentum continues to spark a new round of discussions about its potential upside. Recently, Elliott Wave analyst XForceGlobal from Korea stated that, from a medium- to long-term perspective, XRP still has the potential to surge to $20. This judgment is not based on short-term sentiment but on an in-depth analysis of the price structure. Currently, XRP is around $2.11, with a ninefold increase potential to reach $20, which has sparked considerable discussion in the market.

XRP’s Rebound Background: From Bottom to Structural Breakout

XRP rose approximately 22.6% in just the first 7 days of 2026, successfully returning to the critical $2 level. This rebound background is noteworthy. In Q4 2025, XRP temporarily declined about 35%, even falling below $2, with market concerns about trend reversal reaching a peak. However, from the current trend, a new medium-term bottom is gradually forming near the $2 level.

Most importantly, this rebound is not isolated. Ripple executives have confirmed that XRP’s status as a non-security in the US has been established through court rulings, removing long-term regulatory uncertainty. Meanwhile, spot ETFs for XRP from institutions like Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, Canary, and Bitwise have been approved, with capital inflows exceeding $1.25 billion. These factors provide fundamental support for XRP’s medium-term rise.

Elliott Wave Perspective: Why a Platform Structure

XForceGlobal pointed out that XRP’s current correction pattern is key to understanding the $20 target. Unlike the sharp declines after the 2018 and 2022 cycle highs, XRP, after a significant surge at the end of 2024, did not experience a severe retracement but instead maintained a prolonged sideways consolidation near its historical high. This “high-level stability” is relatively rare in XRP’s history.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, analysts believe the current pattern resembles a platform rather than a triangle consolidation. Specifically, it may belong to an “ascending platform,” characterized by multiple false breakouts without breaking previous lows, ultimately accelerating in the main trend direction. Such structures can often mislead traders but are usually followed by a strong trending move once completed.

Layered Logic of Target Price Levels

Analysts have set layered target prices for XRP:

In the short term, analysts also caution about potential pullback risks in the $1.30 to $1.50 range. This means that even with ambitious targets, there is room for adjustments along the way.

Threefold Market Support

The current market environment provides three layers of support for XRP’s rise:

• Clear legal status: Ripple executives have confirmed XRP’s non-security status, eliminating long-term regulatory risks.
• Institutional capital inflows: ETF capital inflows exceed $1.25 billion, indicating strong institutional investor interest.
• Technical resonance: XRP has completed a golden cross with Bitcoin, with the 50-period moving average crossing above the 200-period moving average, a bullish signal in traditional technical analysis.

Large investors are also active. According to monitoring, whale addresses on January 6 bought 727,433 XRP at an average cost basis of $2.09, totaling about $1.69 million, indicating bullish sentiment among major holders.

Cautionary Voices

However, not all analyses are optimistic. Some market analysts interpret XRP’s rebound as a “dead cat bounce.” These views point out that despite recent gains, trading volume remains weak, and exchange fund flows show signs of distribution, indicating market confidence is still lacking. This serves as a reminder for investors that, even with a positive medium- to long-term outlook, short-term caution is necessary.

The Key “If”

A core “if” in XForceGlobal’s analysis framework is: if the current correction phase ends smoothly and subsequent buying momentum continues to grow, XRP has significant upside potential. This means that reaching $20 is not guaranteed but depends on the simultaneous fulfillment of two conditions.

In other words, Elliott Wave theory provides a possible price structure rather than a certain future. The market needs to confirm this structure through volume, capital flows, and further technical breakthroughs to verify whether the pattern is truly unfolding.

Summary

Elliott Wave analysis offers a technical rationale for the $20 target for XRP. The current formation of a platform-like structure around $2.11, combined with ETF capital inflows, legal status confirmation, and a golden cross in technical indicators, indeed creates conditions for a medium-term rise. However, the realization of this depends on the smooth completion of the correction phase and sustained buying strength. For investors, the key is not to believe that $20 will definitely arrive but to understand what this structure implies and how to manage risks during the process. The short-term risk of a pullback to $1.30–$1.50 remains, which could serve as an important test of whether the structure is genuine.