2026-01-08 09:10:11

#数字资产行情上升 Tonight, the US employment data release will be the key indicator to determine the market’s rhythm. According to CME data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January have fallen to around 20%, which essentially confirms a market consensus: interest rates will stay high for a longer period.

Careful analysis of this tightening cycle shows that the market has been digesting it step by step. The marginal negative effects are diminishing and no longer seem so alarming. As long as tonight’s data does not show a significant deterioration, it could even easily trigger a scenario of "bad news fully priced in before a rebound."

Looking back at similar market patterns from last month, the market usually exhibits a surprise after the data is released—this time, it’s unlikely to be an exception. At this point, it’s not advisable to be overly bearish; instead, focus on potential structural opportunities that may emerge after the data is announced. The market is waiting for a trigger point for a sentiment shift, and tonight’s employment data could very well be that starting point. The crypto market’s rebound often begins with a reversal of macro expectations like this.

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BackrowObserver

· 01-11 08:36

Tired of the saying that "bad news is fully priced in and then rebounds"? Can tonight's employment data give us some real surprises? Still waiting for the trigger point? Instead of waiting, why not go all in directly? Hey, so how come the data hasn't come out yet? I'm ready to reverse my position.

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FreeMinter

· 01-11 06:30

Is the bearish sentiment exhausted and then a rebound? Try the same trick one more time; anyway, the data always says so beforehand, haha.

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DefiEngineerJack

· 01-09 13:42

well *actually* if you look at the empirical data, the consensus formation mechanism here is fundamentally flawed. everyone's just pattern-matching to last month's playbook lol

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ImpermanentLossFan

· 01-08 09:31

The market only rebounds after all the bad news is out; how many times have we played this game? Tonight's data will probably be the fuse.

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Hash_Bandit

· 01-08 09:28

ngl, the market's basically already priced in the pain... been watching these difficulty adjustments in sentiment for weeks now. if jobs data doesn't crater hard tonight, we might actually see that reversal kick in. history rhymes, as they say

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RamenStacker

· 01-08 09:28

Employment data at this critical moment, it feels like we're about to see the old script of "expectation reversal" play out again.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 01-08 09:12

The bearish pattern of exhausting all downside and then rebounding has become quite cliché to me, but tonight's data indeed needs to be watched. --- It's another trigger point for a sentiment shift. How long do I have to wait to get in? --- The law of diminishing marginal returns is real; it feels like the market's resilience to declines has indeed strengthened. --- How long can the expectation gap strategy last? Anyway, I don't believe there will be any structural opportunities tonight. --- The 20% probability of rate cuts has long been priced in. The question is how to catch the bottom. --- Employment data and other major events are always said to be able to change the market rhythm, but what’s the reality? --- After pondering seriously for a while, I realize I still can't understand what the market is thinking, so I give up. --- In a high-interest-rate environment, rebounds probably can't go too high. --- Waiting for macro reversal in the crypto market? Better wait for my salary to arrive and reverse. --- This tightening cycle has absorbed what it could, but hasn't generated any upward movement.

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