Recently, there has been continuous controversy within the community. Some see the gentle rise on the 15-minute candlestick chart and rush to say "This is a trap to lure buyers," then turn around and shout "It's about to crash." This kind of judgment is quite common, but it often leads to pitfalls.

My view is different.

Instead of fixating on a so-called "雷针" (lightning rod) pattern on the 4-hour chart, it's better to focus on the defense line built by the bulls below 3120—that is the true support foundation. The upward structure on the hourly chart is also very clear; this is not a small-scale fluctuation.

**The true reflection of the current market**

ETH is currently consolidating in a range around 3170. Many mistakenly think this is the "mid-mountain," but in fact, it resembles more a platform for gathering strength before a move.

Look at some key signals: the 15-minute MACD shows a golden cross, accompanied by moderate volume expansion. This indicates that buying interest is gradually entering the market, rather than a "sugar-coated trap." The 3120-3125 region has been tested multiple times and is defended very strongly. Every time the bears attempt to push lower, they are quickly pulled back, showing strong support below.

Looking upward, once ETH effectively stabilizes above 3220, a large number of trapped positions will be unwound, and this force often transforms into upward momentum, targeting 3300 or even higher.

**Why shouldn't we be bearish at this position?**

From a trend perspective: since the rebound from the previous low of 3123, the highs and lows are gradually rising, and the early signs of an uptrend are already visible. This is not a weak rebound but a structural shift.

From market sentiment: currently, the bearish voices are quite strong, with pessimistic tones everywhere. This is actually a contrarian indicator. Historical experience tells us that markets tend to reverse when everyone is uniformly pessimistic. The more consensus there is on downside, the greater the trap potential.

From the liquidation perspective: short-term bullish leverage positions have undergone sufficient shakeout, making the market’s position structure healthier, which reduces heavy selling pressure for subsequent rises.

I have seen too many traders pay the price for a single wrong judgment. The problem is never about being bullish or bearish; it’s about the lack of patience and risk control awareness. When the trend reaches a turning point, those dominated by fear often miss the entire move.

**Practical trading advice**

The best attitude now is to remain patient. Avoid blindly chasing highs at current prices; wait for a pullback to the support zone around 3140-3150 before seeking entry opportunities. This approach is more prudent.

If the price can volume-break above 3220 and stabilize, it can be regarded as a signal to add positions, indicating that the trend has been preliminarily established, and the upward space will further open.

Risk management must be strictly enforced: set stop-loss below 3120 to protect capital in case of wrong judgment. In trading, survival is more important than making money.

Looking ahead to the next targets: after breaking through, the first target is 3300; further targets could be in the 3400-3500 range.

Ultimately, trading is not about accurately guessing the top or bottom, but about recognizing the emergence of a trend and riding it. When downward momentum wanes and the structure shifts to strength, every test of support is an opportunity for prepared traders. The key is to have enough patience to wait, rather than being misled by market noise.