2026-01-08 07:32:39

Let's explore a question—Will Ethereum possibly fall below $1500 again in 2026? This is a topic worth analyzing carefully.

First, let's look at what history tells us. During the sharp decline in 2020, ETH broke below $85, driven by liquidity crunches caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, leveraged liquidations, and repeated delays of Ethereum 2.0. In 2022, the situation worsened, with prices falling below $900, mainly due to aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the Luna/UST collapse, and performance bottlenecks of Ethereum. Although in 2025 it dipped below $1500 again, the subsequent rebound was strong—rising directly to $4950, supported by institutional inflows, technological upgrades, and growth in tokenized assets.

So, what about 2026? We need to consider several dimensions:

**Macroeconomic policies**—Will the Federal Reserve continue tightening or start easing? Will global liquidity conditions improve? These factors determine the fundamentals of risk assets.

**Institutional capital flow**—Institutions have already entered the market on a large scale. Will there be a new round of withdrawals? Or will they continue to increase their holdings?

**Technological upgrade progress**—After Ethereum's Dencun upgrade, are there any major developments? Are performance and cost issues being further optimized?

**Market participant structure**—Are retail investors or institutions dominating? This influences the depth of volatility and the strength of rebounds.

**External risk factors**—Could there be black swan events similar to LUNA?

Overall, the risk of a decline in 2026 definitely exists, but whether it will truly break below $1500 depends on how these factors combine.

ETH-4,66%

LUNA-1,37%

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AirdropLicker

· 01-11 06:23

Bro, this analysis framework has some merit, but I think you missed the most crucial point—the retail investors' sentiment cycle. That's the final straw that breaks the camel's back.

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TerraNeverForget

· 01-09 05:43

History is really repeating itself. Behind every crash, there's a black swan waiting for us. Breaking 1500 in 2026 feels uncertain. The key is still what those Fed folks want to do.

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SnapshotBot

· 01-08 08:02

Breaking 1500 or not, honestly it mostly depends on the Federal Reserve's stance... With institutions entering so aggressively, I really can't imagine a crash that severe. History always repeats itself, but this time the players are different. We have to wait and see. Black swan events are always unpredictable, but I bet technological upgrades can hold up. If it really breaks below, that would be a complete market clearance, but the probability isn't high. Instead of obsessing over 1500, it's better to focus on when liquidity might dry up. Once institutions smell something fishy, they run faster than anyone... If there's no bright spot after Dencun, there is indeed a risk. Talking about breaking 1500 is too pessimistic; I think it can hold. Macro factors are still the main focus; the Federal Reserve's moves determine everything. If in 2026 a LUNA-level disaster really happens, everything else is pointless.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 01-08 08:00

Honestly, are we again hyping up a crash in 2026? History always repeats itself but never exactly the same. This time, institutional bottom-fishing determination is different from back when LUNA was around.

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TideReceder

· 01-08 07:57

Really, history tends to repeat itself, but this time the institutional entry feels different... Whether the 1500 level breaks or not still depends on the Federal Reserve's stance; otherwise, no matter how strong the technicals are, it's all in vain.

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NotAFinancialAdvice

· 01-08 07:42

Honestly, I don't think there's much chance of breaking 1500 in 2026. Institutions have already entered, and they won't let the market crash so easily.

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MeaninglessGwei

· 01-08 07:39

Still want to fall below 1500? Looking at the strength of institutional entry in this wave, I think it's very unlikely unless a black swan event occurs. Honestly, the LUNA incident left a shadow on me. Now everything looks like a timed bomb. The key is how the Federal Reserve plays its hand. When liquidity tightens, even the convex lens has to kneel. Is history repeating itself? I've heard this logic too many times, but the next time might really come. Institutions have supported the bottom, retail investors follow suit, and this rebound is so strong that I'm a bit panicked. I still remember when it broke below $900; now it's at $4950... it's really absurd. Instead of predicting 2026, it's better to watch how the Federal Reserve operates in Q1 next year, that will be the decisive drum.

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ProtocolRebel

· 01-08 07:35

Wake up, it's still early for 2026. Why are you talking about that damn 1500 right now?

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