The second pancake is currently around 3150, appearing calm but with undercurrents swirling beneath. From a technical perspective, the first resistance is at 3185; if it can't hold here and rebounds, it will be meaningless. The real reversal point is at 3220, but only a volume breakout can confirm the reversal. On the downside, the situation is also complex: 3080 is an initial support, and 3020 is the true line of defense further down.

The short-term trend is likely to be: first fluctuating between 3185 and 3080, then breaking below 3080 with increased volume to test the 3020 to 3050 zone. Of course, there's a small chance of a reversal, which would require a major positive catalyst or a sharp rally in Bitcoin to trigger a volume breakout above 3220 and achieve a reversal. Another possibility is sideways consolidation, waiting for new news to emerge.

The key lies in the two major danger zones shown on the liquidation heatmap. Around 3200, long leverage positions are accumulated, and a rebound to this level could easily trigger forced liquidations, causing selling pressure. Conversely, the 3020 to 3050 zone is a liquidation attraction area for shorts; falling here could squeeze out short positions and trigger a rebound. Major funds are very likely to exploit these two zones to play both sides of the market.

The macro environment hasn't provided much opportunity for upward movement. Global risk appetite remains fragile, and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are unpredictable, leading to cautious capital flow. Ethereum has no new narrative in the short term; although the Layer2 ecosystem is hot, competition is fierce, gas fees are decreasing, and the initial ETF positive effects haven't met expectations. Instead, high-risk sectors like Solana and Meme coins are attracting capital, and funds are flowing into those areas.

The current opportunity lies in waiting for the second pancake to pull back to a suitable level, with a 200-point rebound space being a good target.