Starting in 2026, focusing on a single data point can reveal the market sentiment—Bitcoin spot ETF's single-day net inflow reaches $471 million. At first glance, this may not seem particularly impressive, but when viewed in the context of the past two months, it tells a different story. In November and December, there was a total net outflow of $4.57 billion, with December alone seeing a $1.09 billion outflow. Back then, many couldn't withstand the volatility above $93K and sold off. But what about smart money? They quietly accumulated at lower retracement levels, replenishing one-tenth of the outflows from the past two months in just one day. At the same price levels, entry and exit always happen simultaneously—the only difference is who is who.
But this isn't an isolated signal. Three other events occurred simultaneously, with the capital flow almost turning around:
First, the selling pressure structure of ETFs has loosened. From continuous net outflows to significant net inflows, investor sentiment is shifting.
Second, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet increased by $59.4 billion in a single week. As of December 31, the size was $6.6406 trillion, a noticeable expansion compared to a week earlier, indicating that liquidity is beginning to ease marginally.
Third, on-chain holdings show signs of accumulation. New addresses holding over 100,000 BTC have emerged, and long-term holders are re-entering with net accumulation.
These factors combined mean that Bitcoin's rebound from $87.5K to $93K (a 6.8% increase) is more than just a mood boost. Behind it is a structural shift in capital, a genuine and rhythmic build-up of positions.
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failed_dev_successful_ape
· 01-11 02:01
Smart money is accumulating chips at low levels, retail investors are cutting losses at high levels. How many times has this story been told...
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OnchainDetectiveBing
· 01-10 07:28
Those who cut losses already regret it; smart money has been quietly accumulating at the bottom all along. That's the difference.
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AirdropHunter
· 01-10 02:49
Smart money is buying at low levels, while retail investors are still cutting losses at 93K. That's the gap.
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rugdoc.eth
· 01-09 11:23
Smart money is buying at lows, retail investors are cutting losses at highs, it's always this rhythm.
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Web3ExplorerLin
· 01-08 07:56
hypothesis: the real tell isn't the $471M inflow itself, but that the fed's balance sheet just expanded $59.4B in a single week. that's the oracle speaking louder than any ETF flow data ever could. when liquidity loosens while on-chain accumulation hits 100k btc... yeah, that's not market sentiment, that's structural repositioning dressed up as price action.
Reply0
PoetryOnChain
· 01-08 07:55
Smart money is buying at low levels, while retail investors are still cutting losses at 93K. That's the gap.
View OriginalReply0
Degen4Breakfast
· 01-08 07:53
Smart money is quietly accumulating at low levels, while retail investors are still cutting losses at 93K. That's the difference.
View OriginalReply0
DataPickledFish
· 01-08 07:48
Smart money is buying up assets, retail investors are cutting losses, and it's always these two scripts.
Basically, it's about who can hold on longer — the game of big fish eating small fish.
This rebound isn't that simple; Fed easing, capital accumulation, and ETF shifts are all happening simultaneously, it's no coincidence.
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BuyTheTop
· 01-08 07:47
Smart money is sweeping the bottom, retail investors are cutting losses. Is the difference really that big? Wake up, everyone.
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ConfusedWhale
· 01-08 07:28
Smart money has already quietly accumulated at the lows, while retail investors are still cutting losses at 93K? That's the difference.
Starting in 2026, focusing on a single data point can reveal the market sentiment—Bitcoin spot ETF's single-day net inflow reaches $471 million. At first glance, this may not seem particularly impressive, but when viewed in the context of the past two months, it tells a different story. In November and December, there was a total net outflow of $4.57 billion, with December alone seeing a $1.09 billion outflow. Back then, many couldn't withstand the volatility above $93K and sold off. But what about smart money? They quietly accumulated at lower retracement levels, replenishing one-tenth of the outflows from the past two months in just one day. At the same price levels, entry and exit always happen simultaneously—the only difference is who is who.
But this isn't an isolated signal. Three other events occurred simultaneously, with the capital flow almost turning around:
First, the selling pressure structure of ETFs has loosened. From continuous net outflows to significant net inflows, investor sentiment is shifting.
Second, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet increased by $59.4 billion in a single week. As of December 31, the size was $6.6406 trillion, a noticeable expansion compared to a week earlier, indicating that liquidity is beginning to ease marginally.
Third, on-chain holdings show signs of accumulation. New addresses holding over 100,000 BTC have emerged, and long-term holders are re-entering with net accumulation.
These factors combined mean that Bitcoin's rebound from $87.5K to $93K (a 6.8% increase) is more than just a mood boost. Behind it is a structural shift in capital, a genuine and rhythmic build-up of positions.